Orban faces uncertain path after Hungary election rout

BUDAPEST

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban delivers his annual 'State of Hungary' speech in the Varkert Bazaar conference hall of Budapest, Hungary, Saturday, Feb. 18, 2023. The slogan reads: Peace And Safety. (Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP)

Viktor Orban's crushing election defeat has thrown the Hungarian nationalist's political future into doubt and shattered his reputation as an all-powerful leader.

While senior members of Orban's Fidesz party seem to have closed ranks behind him, rare public dissent from the party has seeped out, and analysts say it will be difficult to recover from the landslide loss that ended his 16-year rule.

Last week, Orban, who aimed to make the central European country of 9.5 million people a model of "illiberal democracy," announced he would not take up his parliamentary seat, saying he was needed for the "reorganization of the national camp."

This marks the first time the 62-year-old, who has cultivated close ties with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be absent from parliament since Hungary's democratization in 1990.

Orban was routed in the April 12 elections by newcomer Peter Magyar, whose party won with 55 percent, securing a two-thirds majority in parliament, on the promise of "regime change."

Orban's Fidesz-KDNP alliance lost more than half its parliamentary seats, getting 39 percent of the vote.

Following the loss, Orban on April 28 offered to resign as Fidesz leader, but the party's national board reportedly rejected his resignation.

He is expected to run unopposed for the post at a Fidesz congress on June 13, as analysts say his grip on the party remains firm as ever.

"He turned Fidesz into his personal party, where the primary unifying force is admiration, respect, loyalty or a mixture of these towards him," Szabolcs Dull, who runs the political podcast Otpontban, told AFP.

But the election results have prompted some rare criticism from within Fidesz.

Outgoing lawmaker Orsolya Ferencz, 55, insisted the party needed to learn from the loss, which she compared to a "divine judgment."

"The responsibility of certain politicians, business circles, think tanks and the media must be examined," she told AFP, but declined to be more specific.

"The lack of morality, often manifesting as the pursuit of financial [gain] or power at all costs, adverse selection, and the trampling of professionalism, is unacceptable."

But Ferencz stressed it was up to Orban to decide what kind of role he seeks in "rebuilding" their political community, lauding him for his "historic accomplishments."

Orban managed to bounce back once before: Ousted in 2002 after his first term as premier, he returned eight years later.

"He has a unique capacity for adaptability, and resilience in Hungarian politics," said Zoltan Novak, project director at the Center for Fair Political Analysis.

"But now his presence jeopardizes renewal, because he represents the 16-year period that voters have overwhelmingly rejected," he added.