Bayraktar warns of Hormuz cost, signals new BP agreement

ANKARA

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has said the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz could cost Türkiye around 600 billion Turkish Liras in foregone tax revenue by the end of the year, while also signaling that Ankara is close to a new agreement with BP.

Speaking at a meeting hosted by the Zero Waste Foundation, Bayraktar said the impact of the crisis would depend on the course of oil prices.

“If oil continues at an average of $100, the additional cost until the end of the year will be $13.6 billion. If it reaches $125, this rises to $24 billion,” he said.

“There is also the tax dimension. Due to the Hormuz crisis, there is an approximately 600 billion-lira shortfall on the Treasury side from the sliding-scale mechanism by the end of the year,” he added.

The ministry earlier said Türkiye had reduced the special consumption tax on diesel to zero under the mechanism to shield consumers from fuel-price volatility, estimating the potential year-end burden at 600 billion liras.

Bayraktar met journalists at the program, which was also attended by Zero Waste Foundation President and COP31 High-Level Climate Champion Samed Ağırbaş.

The minister said Türkiye was working with Syria on both mining and oil resources, adding that Ankara had expressed interest in some fields in northeastern Syria.

“In Syria, we have joint work on both mining and oil,” Bayraktar said.

“We told them that we are interested in some fields in northeastern Syria.”

He said Türkiye had signed offshore cooperation agreements in recent months with ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, while also working with Italy’s Eni.

“We are working on an agreement with BP that you will be quite surprised by. We have reached the signing stage,” Bayraktar said.

Bayraktar said Türkiye’s energy policy was shaped by three main issues: rising demand, the burden of energy imports and the country’s 2053 net-zero emissions target.

“Türkiye is a growing economy with a rising population. We are entering a period in which much more electricity will be needed,” he said, pointing to electric vehicles and wider electrification.

He described energy efficiency as the common answer to all three issues.

“The cheapest energy source is using energy efficiently,” Bayraktar said, adding that the cooperation protocol signed with the Zero Waste Foundation would be turned into concrete projects.

Bayraktar said energy ministers would be invited to Türkiye during the Zero Waste Forum, scheduled for June 5-7 in Istanbul.

The forum is expected to bring together participants from more than 150 countries ahead of COP31 in Antalya later this year.

Commenting on the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+, Bayraktar said global energy markets were going through a significant break.

Bayraktar said nearly 11 million barrels of oil had been removed from the global system because of supply disruptions, adding that Türkiye was analyzing the possible effects of the UAE decision.

He said Türkiye’s long-term energy plan, extending into the 2050s, needed to be revised every five years as artificial intelligence, electrification and new technologies reshape demand.

“We are putting electrification at the center of the new energy architecture,” he said.

He said Türkiye also needed major investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency and electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Bayraktar pointed to several regional projects, including extending the Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline to Basra, carrying Qatari gas to Türkiye and Europe through Syria or Iraq, bringing Turkmen gas across the Caspian and developing an electricity transmission line from Saudi Arabia through Jordan and Syria to Türkiye.

He said Türkiye was not giving up on oil and natural gas, noting that the country still needed the equivalent of around 2 million barrels per day.

Bayraktar added that Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) would become more active abroad, citing Somalia, Libya, Pakistan, Central Asia and Turkic republics.

He said TPAO had a target of reaching 1 million barrels per day and was also looking at projects, including in Venezuela.

The minister said Türkiye had also not abandoned exploration in the Mediterranean, although previous deep-sea drilling had not produced a discovery comparable to the Black Sea gas field.

“Our focus is increasing production in the Black Sea,” he said, adding that new drilling work was underway.

Bayraktar also said BOTAŞ was conducting engineering work on a possible natural gas pipeline to Turkish Cyprus.