Shifting goals blur picture of US blockade on Iran

LONDON

The United States has vowed to blockade Iran's ships until the country makes a deal to end their war. But is the blockade working?

Analysts and ship-tracking data paint a complicated picture. Shifting objectives and shadowy activity by vessels making the success of the U.S. operation hard to measure.

"There's been confusion over the scope and the parameters of the blockade because of conflicting information given by the U.S. administration and some delays in when information has been released," Bridget Diakun, an analyst at shipping journal Lloyd's List Intelligence, told AFP.

After the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, Iranian forces effectively closed the strait by targeting vessels trying to cross between its southeastern coast and the northern tip of Oman.

After later peace talks failed during a ceasefire, U.S. forces launched a counter-blockade on April 13. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, said the U.S. blockade would be enforced further east, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman.

Launching the operation, U.S. Central Command said its blockade applied to ships of all nations going to or from Iranian ports.

The U.S. Navy later said it would also block ships suspected of carrying "contraband" including oil, weapons and nuclear material linked to Iran, regardless of their location.

Lloyd's List Intelligence on April 22 quoted an unnamed U.S. defence official as saying that the force was now gauging the blockade's success on how badly it damaged Iran's trade, not on how many rogue vessels crossed the line.

Tracking data and satellite images analyzed by maritime firms show that dozens of ships that potentially fall under these terms have crossed the line, including Iranian-flagged vessels under U.S. sanctions and vessels going to and from Iranian ports.

U.S. Central Command says similar numbers have turned around under U.S. orders. It issues daily updates on its operation, and up until April 17 said that "zero" vessels had evaded the blockade.

On April 18, it said the blockade had "completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea". But since then it has only listed the number of vessels turned around, currently standing at 28.

Counting the number of rogue vessels that may have skirted the blockade is difficult, due to the conflicting definitions and other factors.

Some sanctioned vessels have sailed west into the Gulf beyond Hormuz, but flagged their destination as Iraq or other non-Iranian destinations.

Once inside the Gulf, Diakun said, vessels can "spoof" their transponders to hide their positions and even perform ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian oil, testing the terms of the U.S. blockade.

Several Iranian-linked vessels also appear to have turned off their transponders while sailing out of the Gulf before reappearing in the Arabian Sea, satellite imagery seen by maritime firms apparently confirming their route.

U.S. officials suggested early in the blockade that certain vessels would be granted exemptions on humanitarian grounds, but did not specify the exact conditions.

Tracking data showed that at least two vessels travelled in and out of the Gulf unimpeded having either dropped off or picked up food at Iranian ports.