Iran crisis poses new challenges to Turkish agriculture

Gamze Bal- ISTANBUL  

Türkiye’s agricultural sector, which is already grappling with drought, frost and rising input costs, now faces a fresh blow as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten fertilizer shipments.

The combination of climate-related pressures and escalating expenses has driven contraction in the sector. Agricultural output shrank by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, 3.5 percent in the second and a steep 12.7 percent in the third. Overall, the sector contracted by 8.8 percent compared to the previous year. The conflict sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran is expected to extend its impact beyond energy markets, pushing fertilizer prices higher and deepening the strain on farming.

Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, commenting on fourth-quarter growth figures earlier this month, attributed the decline in agriculture largely to the prolonged effects of frost and drought.

Meanwhile, Baki Remzi Suiçmez, president of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects’ Chamber of Agricultural Engineers (ZMO), emphasized that structural weaknesses compound the climate crisis. “The main reason for agriculture’s severe contraction is not technical. Climate has negative effects, but the real issue is structural,” he said.

Suiçmez stated that extraordinary conditions such as drought, frost, hail, floods, foot-and-mouth disease and brown marmorated stink bug severely disrupt agricultural production, yet no special economic or agricultural support packages have been introduced. He emphasized that overall support levels remain low, while input costs — on which Türkiye is heavily import-dependent — continue to rise. “Without addressing the structural problems in agriculture, self-sufficiency cannot be achieved,” he said.

Global concerns are mounting as well. A World Trade Organization report noted that one-third of global fertilizer exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that major producers such as India, Thailand and Brazil face significant import risks.

Türkiye, heavily reliant on external inputs, currently maintains adequate domestic fertilizer stocks, but prolonged disruption could reduce yields and supply in the upcoming harvest season, according to experts.