Intelligence academy report flags three flashpoints that could trigger wider war

ANKARA

Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy (MİA), an education and research body operating under the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), has published a new report warning that three potential flashpoints could evolve into conflicts on a much wider scale.

The report, titled “The Transformation of Geopolitical Competition, New Challenges and Türkiye,” lists the risks as: a possible expansion of the Russia-Ukraine war in a way that could trigger NATO’s Article 5, renewed escalation of the “12-Day War” in the Middle East, and a potential Chinese military operation against Taiwan.

On the Middle East, the report frames the “12-Day War” as being positioned along the Iran-Israel fault line and argues that the conflict has not been politically resolved because no diplomatic formula has been found for nuclear issues and ballistic missile capabilities. It warns the most serious risk is the fighting spilling into the Gulf — especially Iran striking a U.S. base in Qatar — and says a renewed Iran-Israel war could trigger a global economic shock through hydrocarbon markets and produce major migration waves.

On Asia-Pacific, the report says a conflict around Taiwan could impose extraordinary economic costs. It cites projections that global losses could reach $10 trillion, alongside an estimated 10.2 percent contraction in global GDP in a major war scenario.

The report also highlights Europe’s security dilemma as Washington’s strategic focus shifts. It says defending Europe without U.S. support could impose an additional burden of up to $344 billion, and argues that key capabilities — including satellite systems, AWACS aircraft and strategic drones — are insufficient in Europe. In a scenario of full U.S. withdrawal, it says Europe’s defense spending would need to reach $1 trillion.

Separately, the report warns that any limited U.S. military operation linked to Greenland could open fault lines inside NATO, potentially sharpening divisions between Washington and a European strategic autonomy bloc led by France.