2026 'most likely' to be second-hottest year on record: EU monitor

PARIS

A person cools off at a cooling mist spot on a hot and sunny day at the Sensoji Buddhist temple in Tokyo's Asakusa district on Aug. 7, 2026. (AP File Photo)

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern turbocharges human-driven global warming, the EU's climate monitor said on Nov. 6.

This year still has a "20 percent chance of tying or exceeding" 2024 as the warmest ever seen, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said in a monthly bulletin.

Global temperatures are now "virtually certain" to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2026, Copernicus said.

The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5 degrees Celsius, the preferred limit set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial times, an era defined as 1850-1900, Copernicus added.

"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus.

"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," she said.

The latest bulletin comes as nations prepare to meet on Nov. 9 for the U.N.'s two-week COP31 climate summit in Türkiye after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.