Worsening El Nino threatens Asia, potentially raising food prices globally

BANTEN

Long-submerged houses are exposed after prolonged drought lowers the water level of Karian Dam, in Lebak, Banten Province, Indonesia. (AP Photo)

All signs are pointing toward a record-breaking El Nino this year, which experts say may cause severe drought in Asia and other extreme weather across the world, threatening food security for millions of people.

El Nino is part of a natural climate cycle of warming ocean temperatures, but this year’s is expected to reach new extremes of drought, heat waves, flooding and other climate-related disruptions in South America, Africa and Asia.

During El Nino years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual. This happens every few years and often alters global weather patterns.

This year, the seas already are hotter than average, with global oceans hitting new temperature records in August as the climate warms, said Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

This intensifying El Nino may be the “strongest in living memory,” according to the United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service.

El Nino’s impact will be felt differently across regions, but it is expected to jeopardize food security worldwide. It could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to the United Nations’ World Food Program.

The problem will be worst in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia, warned the food agency.

Less rainfall and hotter temperatures are putting pressure on Southeast Asia’s fisheries, an essential source of protein.

Lower flows are especially hard on communities along the Mekong that depend on predictable water levels for fishing and farming, said Kongmeng Ly, with the Mekong River Commission, an intergovernmental group for Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.

Southeast Asia’s wet season generally runs from June to October, when rains usually replenish reservoirs, cool overheated cities and supply water for irrigation ahead of the next planting season.

Drought may force farmers to delay planting, reduce acreage or switch crops entirely, said Rafisura, with the U.N. “Agriculture is definitely on the front line,” she said.

Cutbacks in staple crops like rice and palm oil can have global impacts. The world’s top three exporters of rice — India, Vietnam and Thailand — are among the nations most likely to be hit hard by El Nino this year.

El Nino is also bearing down on Indonesia and Malaysia, suppliers of about 85 percent of the world’s palm oil, which is used in everything from cookies and lipstick to toothpaste and laundry detergent.

While the total economic fallout of an extreme El Nino is hard to calculate, losses from past events have reached trillions of dollars, according to HSBC’s Global Investment Research, which warns the numbers could be even bigger this time.

Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate this El Nino could push global food commodity prices up more than 15 percent.