Winter rains delayed Türkiye’s wildfire season but expert warns risk persists

İZMİR

While heavy winter rain delayed the start of Türkiye’s forest fire season, the resulting abundant spring vegetation could dangerously increase fire hazards once summer drought conditions take hold, an expert warns.

Ufuk Özkan, a faculty member at İzmir Katip Çelebi University, said the country received more rainfall than forecast by the Turkish State Meteorological Service during the first months of the year, easing water stress after last year’s severe drought. However, he stressed that while the precipitation postponed the timing of wildfire outbreaks, it did not eliminate the underlying risk. “The rains delayed the start of the wildfire season, but once summer drought begins, the danger is always present,” Özkan said.

He explained that much of the rainfall recorded during the first quarter of 2026 fell in short, intense bursts, exceeding the soil’s capacity to absorb water. As a result, a significant portion became surface runoff rather than replenishing groundwater reserves, limiting its long-term benefits.

The improved soil moisture encouraged vigorous growth of grasses and other vegetation throughout the spring. However, as temperatures climbed and the upper soil dried in late June and early July, this vegetation rapidly turned into dry fuel capable of igniting easily.

According to Özkan, wildfire statistics and field observations indicate that around 65 percent of fire risk is concentrated along areas where forests meet expanding residential areas. These transition zones, rich in dry grasses and low vegetation, now pose one of the greatest wildfire threats.

He noted that the General Directorate of Forestry has developed detailed risk maps and is well prepared operationally, but emphasized that early detection and public awareness remain the most effective tools for limiting wildfire damage.

Municipalities across the Aegean and Mediterranean regions have responded by mowing dry grass along urban fringes, but Özkan said these efforts should be further strengthened through closer coordination and logistical support with the General Directorate of Forestry to reduce wildfire risks throughout the summer.