UN survey shows rising fears of major war

NEW YORK

Some 76 percent of respondents in a United Nations survey expected the effects of a large-scale war to be felt by a significant share of humanity within seven years.

Thirty-six percent expected those effects within 12 months. Compared with the first survey in 2024, large-scale war climbed 16 places in the ranking of how soon risks were expected to materialize — the biggest upward shift recorded.

The 2026 Global Risk Report, released on Sept. 15, draws on about 1,300 responses collected between Feb. 19 and April 24. Participants from government, business, civil society, academia and international organizations assessed 28 global risks.

“The rankings in this report measure perceptions of risk,” the report said.

Geopolitical tensions, disinformation and the breakdown of the rule of law were among the most interconnected threats.

The strongest link identified was between geopolitical tensions and large-scale war.

Resource shortages, economic fragmentation, disinformation and weakening international institutions were seen as factors that could increase geopolitical tensions.

Respondents still ranked failure to address climate change as the most important risk overall. Pandemics and biological threats received lower importance ratings than in 2024, while a global financial crisis and supply chain breakdowns featured among near-term economic concerns.

Priorities varied by region. War and geopolitical tensions featured prominently among respondents in Europe and North America, while financial instability and artificial intelligence risks stood out in East and Southeast Asia. Inequality, disinformation and climate change were among the main concerns in Latin America and the Caribbean.

International institutions were viewed as stronger at detecting risks and issuing warnings than at reducing them. Respondents rated them least prepared for technological threats.

Eighty-six percent said funding for risk reduction and prevention was inadequate.