Türkiye set for rainy autumn despite above-normal temperatures

ISTANBUL

(AA Photo)

Türkiye is expected to experience a warmer-than-normal autumn but receive above-average rainfall across much of the country, according to a climate scientist, who said the outlook marks a departure from last year’s drier autumn.

Murat Türkeş, a member of the executive board of Boğaziçi University’s Center for Climate Change and Policy Research, said temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal averages in October, November and December, meaning Türkiye is expected to enter winter under warmer-than-normal conditions.

“Unlike last year, I expect this autumn to be rainy,” Türkeş said, forecasting above-normal precipitation across a large part of the country during the three-month period. He said rainfall in western and northwestern Türkiye is expected to remain around or below seasonal averages, while most other regions are likely to receive more precipitation than normal.

Türkeş attributed the outlook to the expected influence of frontal low-pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and, at times, the Mediterranean over the northern Mediterranean basin, southern Europe, the Balkans and Türkiye.

However, he cautioned that higher temperatures could still intensify the effects of drought by increasing evaporation from ecosystems, soil and water resources and reducing soil moisture. Warmer conditions can also contribute to agricultural drought even when rainfall is adequate.

Türkeş noted that above-normal precipitation from last autumn through the summer had already eased hydrological and agricultural drought across much of Türkiye. Prolonged drought remains a concern in parts of the northwest, the Marmara and northern Aegean regions, as well as central parts of southeastern Türkiye.

Despite the expected rise in temperatures, he said rainfall could limit the severity of drought conditions during the coming season.