Türkiye braces for mild, delayed winter season

ISTANBUL

Türkiye is set for an unusually mild winter this year, with forecasts showing temperatures well above seasonal norms across December, January and February, while rainfall is expected to remain near average levels.

According to the Turkish State Meteorological Service, seasonal models show that winter temperatures will range 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal, reducing the likelihood of widespread snowfall, especially at lower elevations.

Meteorology official Şahin Şahbaz said short cold spells and isolated snow events are still possible, but added that “a generally warmer winter” is anticipated.

Because of this, snowfall totals are expected to remain below average in many regions.

December is expected to be 1 to 2 degrees warmer than normal nationwide, with precipitation levels near average but fewer opportunities for snow.

January will follow a similar trend, with most regions running above normal, while coastal parts of the Aegean and western Marmara remain closer to seasonal values.

February is also projected to be warm across much of the country, especially in the Black Sea region, eastern and southeastern provinces and parts of the Mediterranean.

Şahbaz warned that a warm winter may trigger early budding and flowering in plants, increasing the risk of damage from late-season frost.

Experts say this year’s winter may also arrive later than usual.

Prominent meteorologist Professor Orhan Şen expects the Siberian high-pressure system to influence Türkiye mainly after January, resulting in what he describes as an average but delayed winter.

Meteorologist Adil Tek also noted that earlier projections for a harsh winter have shifted, and significant snow is no longer expected in December or the first half of January.

He believes Istanbul’s best chance for snowfall will come toward late January or mid-February, though any event is unlikely to be long-lasting.

Alongside the seasonal outlook, the weather bureau issued a severe rain warning for 14 provinces across the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, including the provinces of İzmir, Muğla and Antalya. Officials urged caution against flash floods.

Meanwhile, temperatures across central and eastern Türkiye are dropping toward normal levels, with fog and low-visibility conditions expected during morning and night hours.

Forecasts show daily highs of 10 degrees in Istanbul, 12 degrees in Ankara and 16 degrees in İzmir, while high-altitude areas may see snow or mixed precipitation.