Threat by Yemen’s Houthis put another trade chokepoint at risk

CAIRO

Declared blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi rebels has the potential to widen the Iran war and further disrupt global oil supplies and international trade.

The rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa.

Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Around 12 percent of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container traffic, passes through the narrows, moving between Europe and Asia via Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The strait has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis say they will only stop vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or going in and out of its Red Sea ports. But during a similar blockade announced against Israel over the war in Gaza, the rebels attacked many vessels with little or no connection to that conflict.

The threat alone could keep international shippers from using the route.

The Houthis don’t control the part of Yemen’s coastline along Bab el-Mandeb — that’s in the hands of its opponents in the country’s civil war. But they hold territory less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.

Three Houthi officials told the AP on July 21 that the group has planned for months how to disrupt shipping in the strait. Those plans include the use of naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones and helicopters to allow fighters to board ships, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to media.

They said vessels would first be warned not to cross designated boundaries in the strait. If ships ignore the warnings, the Houthis would resort to military action.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown that even sporadic attacks on ships can be enough to effectively close a critical waterway, by driving up risks and insurance premiums.

“If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once,” Clionadh Raleigh, the founder of ACLED, a conflict monitoring service, said on July 21.

More than 7 million barrels of petroleum a day transited Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared to around 4 million before the Iran war, Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration, wrote in an analysis published on July 20.

Saudi Arabia has been recently exporting some 4 million barrels of oil a day through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, blunting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has still rattled economies around the world.

Saudi Arabia could still get crude to market without using Bab el-Mandeb, by shipping up to 2.5 million barrels a day across the Red Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can carry it to the Mediterranean. It could also ship 1 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal.

International shippers could also reroute, as they did at the height of the war in Gaza. But that means going the long way around the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa, adding one or two weeks to voyages — and raising costs.

The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels at the height of the war in Gaza, before a punishing U.S. and Israeli air campaign put an end to the attacks in early 2025.