Survey shows slight rise in inflation expectations for 2026

ISTANBUL

The Central Bank’s June Survey of Market Participants showed that expectations for year-end consumer price inflation (CPI) increased to 29.14 percent from 28.94 percent in the previous survey.

The Survey of Market Participants tracks the expectations of decision-makers and experts in the financial and real sectors regarding key economic indicators.

According to the latest results, the expected monthly CPI increase for June declined to 1.36 percent from 1.52 percent in the previous survey.

Inflation expectations eased slightly for the medium term, with the 12-month ahead forecast edging down to 23.81 percent from 23.82 percent, and the 24-month ahead expectation falling to 18.29 percent from 18.43 percent.

Official data showed that consumer prices rose by 1.71 percent month-on-month in May, pushing the annual inflation rate to 32.61 percent from 32.37 percent in April.

Participants also revised their exchange rate expectations. The year-end dollar/Turkish lira forecast declined to 51.47 from 51.57, while the 12-month ahead projection increased to 55.72 from 54.69.

Growth expectations were slightly lowered for the current year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast trimmed to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent. The growth outlook for next year remained unchanged at 4.1 percent.