Survey shows decline in inflation expectations

ANKARA

Inflation expectations eased in December across households, the real sector and market participants, according to the Central Bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey released on Dec. 26.

Twelve-month-ahead annual inflation expectations fell by 1.34 points to 50.9 percent for households and by 0.90 points to 34.8 percent for the real sector compared with the previous month. The share of households anticipating a decline in inflation over the next year slipped by 0.30 points to 24.53 percent, the bank reported.

Expectations among market participants also moderated, dropping by 0.14 points to 23.35 percent.

The trend of improving expectations and the decline in services inflation will continue to support the disinflation process, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek wrote on X, commenting on the bank survey.

“With the contribution of policies that reduce supply-side risks and enhance competitiveness, we aim to achieve price stability,” Şimşek said.

Türkiye’s annual inflation rate slowed to 31.07 percent year-on-year, marking its lowest level in four years.

In November, the Central Bank reaffirmed its interim inflation targets of 24 percent for 2025, 16 percent for 2026, and 9 percent for 2027.

“We forecast inflation to be between 31 percent and 33 percent by the end of 2025,” Governor Fatih Karahan said at the Inflation Report 2025-IV Briefing in Istanbul on Nov. 7. “By the end of 2026, our projections suggest inflation will decline to a range of 13 to 19 percent,” he added.