Showers to hit Türkiye before severe El Nino heat wave

ISTANBUL

Brief showers will bring temporary relief to northern Türkiye this week before a rapidly strengthening El Nino system triggers severe heat waves and high humidity across the country, meteorologists have warned.

Northern regions can expect localized thunderstorms mid-week bringing brief cooling, Istanbul Aydın University meteorology expert Dr. Güven Özdemir said. Coastal areas of the Black Sea region will face high humidity, while inland sections will experience convective rain, and the Marmara region will alternate between heat waves and short cooling periods, he said.

Istanbul will see daytime temperatures up to 34 degrees Celsius and nights between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius, though northeasterly winds around the Bosphorus may offer slight relief. High humidity will make 31 degrees Celsius feel like 38 degrees Celsius, requiring residents to avoid the sun between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., Özdemir said.

Following the precipitation, temperatures will soar 2 to 5 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms across southern and central regions driven by African heat currents and Basra low pressure. The Aegean and Mediterranean regions, particularly the southern provinces of Adana, Osmaniye, Hatay and inland Antalya, will see temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius, while southeastern provinces could reach 45 degrees Celsius.

Central Anatolia will maintain temperatures 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms with hot days and cool nights, facing weekend thunderstorms in its north. East Anatolia expects northeastern showers while remaining hot and dry elsewhere.

The extreme weather aligns with World Meteorological Organization data showing El Nino strengthening faster than expected, with ocean temperatures projected to rise 2.9 degrees Celsius above seasonal averages, up from a 2.1 degrees Celsius difference in July.

Current conditions are warmer than the extreme events of 1998 and 2016, setting the stage for a very strong El Nino by autumn 2026 and potential global temperature records in 2027, Özdemir said. Strong El Nino years increase Türkiye’s wildfire risks, sea temperatures and Mediterranean-based extreme precipitation, driven also by the North Atlantic Oscillation and atmospheric blockages, he said.

Driven by intensifying climate patterns, massive wildfires across France and Spain have displaced hundreds of thousands of people and scorched tens of thousands of hectares in France alone. Monthly rainfall in England and Wales dropped to about 10 percent of the long-term average, marking one of their driest Julys on record. South Korea urged citizens to halt outdoor activities as temperatures hit 42.5 degrees Celsius.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said El Nino will exacerbate existing heatwaves, wildfires and record sea temperatures. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the pattern provides a crucial preparation window for governments to identify and mitigate risks.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate cycle characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It occurs every two to seven years, significantly altering global weather patterns and marine ecosystems.