Rains boost Türkiye’s grain output but hurt fruit, vegetable quality

Şevval Aydoğan-ISTANBUL  

Increased rainfall driven by climate change has created mixed outcomes for Türkiye’s agricultural sector, damaging the quality of fruits and vegetables while boosting grain production after years of drought.

Heavy rains led to quality losses in fruit and vegetable crops and caused rust disease in some cereal fields. At the same time, precipitation helped revive many grain crops that had been affected by prolonged dry conditions, raising expectations of significant yield increases. In some regions, wheat and barley output is expected to rise by more than 100 percent compared with last year.

Climate change, which has generally weighed on agricultural productivity and pushed food prices higher, has this time generated optimism for improved harvests in certain crops. Following two years marked by severe drought, favorable rainfall this season has driven expectations of higher grain yields.

According to representatives of local agricultural chambers across different provinces, while excessive rainfall has caused rust disease in cereals in some areas, other regions are likely to see more than a twofold increase in production. Sector representatives said that although rains have resulted in losses for fruit and vegetable growers, they have effectively provided a lifeline for grain producers. They also noted that the extent to which farmers benefit will depend on the procurement prices to be announced during the harvest period.

Mustafa Hepokur, a board member of the Union of Chambers of Agriculture of Türkiye (TZOB) and head of the Konya Meram Chamber of Agriculture, said rainfall had brought abundance to grain production, with yields expected to increase by around 35 percent.

Hikmet İpar, head of the Şanlıurfa Hilvan Chamber of Agriculture, said the region had experienced severe drought over the past two years. He noted that last year, drought damaged 1.6 million decares of farmland in Şanlıurfa, with losses reaching around 70 percent. The recent rainfall, he said, has led to a more than 100 percent increase in grain yields compared with last year and a 30–40 percent rise compared with average years.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) last week released the first estimates for plant production, pointing to record levels in several grain and fruit categories. Total cereal production in 2026 is projected to increase by 21.7 percent year-on-year to approximately 41.6 million tons.

Wheat output is forecast to rise by 26.7 percent to 22.8 million tons, while barley production is expected to surge 50 percent to 9 million tons. Corn production, however, is expected to decline by 5.9 percent to 8 million tons.

TÜİK estimates that vegetable production will remain largely unchanged compared with last year, while fruit, beverage and spice crop output is projected to increase by 57.8 percent to around 31 million tons.