OECD upgrades Türkiye’s 2025 and 2026 growth outlook

ISTANBUL

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD has raised its growth forecasts for the Turkish economy for this year and 2026.

While upgrading its projections, OECD estimates that growth will accelerate to 4 percent in 2027.

According to the OECD’s Economic Outlook report, after growing by 3.3 percent in 2024, the Turkish economy is expected to expand by 3.6 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.

In its interim report published in September, the institution had forecast growth of 3.2 percent for both this year and 2026.

Higher tariffs will weaken exports, but the effect is expected to be relatively small and short-lived, said the report, adding that Improved financial conditions will support private consumption and investment in 2026 and 2027, which in turn will trigger stronger imports.

Headline inflation is expected to fall to 10 percent by the end of 2027, but upside risks to this projection remain significant, according to the report.

“The fiscal deficit is assumed to decline from 3.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to 2.8 percent in 2027, in line with the Medium Term Program. This consolidation will be driven by efforts to broaden the tax base and tackle informality,” it said.

The world economy has proven surprisingly durable in the face of President Donald Trump’s trade wars, the OECD also said, upgrading its outlook for global growth this year.

The 38-country OECD now forecasts that the world economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, down a tick from 3.3 percent in 2024 but an improvement on the 2.9 percent it had predicted for 2025 back in June.