Most Turkish cities deemed ‘very old’ as fertility rate hits record low

ISTANBUL

A total of 58 out of Türkiye’s 81 provinces cities are now classified as having a “very old population,” according to new data presented by Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Özdemir Göktaş, highlighting a sharp demographic shift driven by falling birth rates, delayed marriage and an aging society.

The number of “very old” provinces has more than tripled since 2007, rising from 19 to 59, Göktaş highlighted, calling population trends a matter of national security.

A city is categorized as "very elderly" when the proportion of its population aged 65 and over exceeds 10 percent of the total population.

Türkiye’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.48, well below the 2.1 replacement level needed for a population to sustain itself.

In 2014, only the northwestern province of Edirne had a fertility rate of 1.5 or lower.

By 2024, that number had surged to 55 provinces, including Edirne, placing much of the country in what officials describe as a “red alert” zone.

According to the ministry, the number of provinces with fertility rates above the replacement level dropped from 29 to just 10 over roughly a decade.

Göktaş cited United Nations population projections, warning that if current trends continue, Türkiye’s population could fall dramatically by the end of the century.

“Under the U.N.’s very low scenario, Türkiye’s population could decline to 25 million by 2100,” she said.

Türkiye’s statistical authority, TÜİK, projects a less severe but still significant drop to 54 million under its low-growth scenario.

Türkiye currently has a population of around 85 million.

Officials also pointed to rising ages for marriage and parenthood as a key factor behind declining births.

The average age of first-time mothers rose from 25.8 in 2001 to 29.3 in 2024, while the average age of first-time fathers increased from 26 to 28.

“Around 57 percent of households no longer have children under 18,” Göktaş said. “Without supporting marriage, family formation and childbearing, this problem cannot be solved.”

The government is preparing a broad policy framework addressing family, population and social structure, to be unveiled in February with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s participation, Göktaş said.

She also announced plans to submit legislation to parliament that would extend maternity leave from 16 to 24 weeks for both public and private sector employees, while paternity leave would double from five to 10 days.

Despite these measures, experts acknowledge that reversing Türkiye’s demographic decline will require long-term structural changes, as the country confronts one of the fastest aging trends in its modern history.