Market inflation expectations edge higher

ISTANBUL

(AA Photo)

Market participants slightly raised their year-end inflation expectations while trimming growth forecasts for the next two years, according to the Central Bank’s October Survey of Market Participants.

The survey, which tracks the expectations of decision-makers and experts from the financial and real sectors regarding key economic indicators, showed that the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) forecast rose to 29.61 percent from 29.43 percent in the previous survey period.

Expectations for inflation 12 months ahead were broadly unchanged at 23.7 percent, compared with 23.69 percent previously, while the 24-month-ahead inflation forecast increased to 18.32 percent from 18.03 percent.

Growth expectations were revised slightly lower. Participants now expect Türkiye’s economy to expand by 3 percent in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.1 percent.

The growth estimate for 2027 was also cut to 3.9 percent from 4 percent.

Meanwhile, expectations for the Turkish Lira remained mixed. The year-end U.S. dollar/lira forecast edged down to 51.57 from 51.66 in the previous survey. However, participants raised their 12-month exchange rate expectation to 58.60 liras per dollar from 57.43.