Italian PM seeks to revive fortunes with electoral reform

ROME

Italy's prime minister is seeking to revive her government's fortunes after a damaging referendum defeat with a new electoral reform introduced in parliament Tuesday.

Reeling from her first major drubbing since taking office in 2022, Giorgia Meloni now wants a win with the new polls system, which could boost her chances of reelection next year.

Though the coalition government has a comfortable majority in parliament, last week's justice reform referendum loss undermined Meloni's authority and destabilized her allies.

"Meloni is in trouble and is showing undeniable signs of weakness," Giovanni Orsina, political scientist at Rome's Luiss University, told AFP.

The resignations of two ministers have not stopped speculation over the government's future, with commentators suggesting Meloni may even be forced to trigger early elections, to take advantage of a divided left.

Though she has repeatedly vowed to serve until 2027, Meloni could resign once the electoral law is adopted, sparking a ballot in October.

Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, head of the far-right League, vowed on March 30 the government would "reach the end of its term without any doubts or hesitation," though he is weakened by a split within his party.

Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani's center-right Forza Italia, the driving force of the referendum, is also under strain.

Orsina thought the prime minister's resignation "highly improbable," but said the challenge now is to stop the political "snowball effect" triggered by the defeat.

The prime minister needs a new project to galvanize her government after the defeat, and the electoral reform is cost free.

But Meloni's own far-right Brothers of Italy party is divided over whether to push forward with it. And though government parties are ahead in the polls, the revised law could also prove an electoral boomerang.

The current system is a mix of seats allocated with first-past-the-post and the proportional method.

The reform would see Italy switch to a fully proportional system, with a seat bonus in both chambers for the coalition that wins more than 40 percent of the vote.

A simulation by polling firm YouTrend last month found that under Italy's current system neither the center-right nor the center-left would get a parliamentary majority at the 2027 polls.

Under the new one, the center-right would likely win the bonus seats.

But a simulation by pollster Nando Pagnoncelli on March 30 showed that the center-left could take those bonus seats, should the right bloc lose the rebel, far-right National Future party.

And though the left has long struggled to find a way to work together on key issues, and lacks a shared PM candidate, it has been invigorated by its referendum win.

It accuses Meloni of ignoring the defeat and rushing to change the electoral law for her own political interests, rather than focusing on the country's ills.