Inflation expectations worsen, growth outlook weakens

ISTANBUL

Inflation expectations in Türkiye have deteriorated, according to the Central Bank’s latest Survey of Market Participants, which tracks the views of decision-makers and experts in the financial and real sectors.

The survey showed that year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectations rose to 27.53 percent, up from 25.38 percent in the previous survey period.

Consumer prices increased by 1.94 percent month-on-month in March, which brought the annual inflation rate to 30.87 percent from 31.53 percent in February, official data showed earlier this month.

Expectations for the 12-month ahead inflation also climbed, from 22.17 percent to 23.39 percent, while the 24-month outlook increased from 17.30 percent to 18.02 percent.

Currency projections also shifted higher. Participants’ year-end exchange rate expectation for the U.S. dollar against the Turkish Lira rose from 50.97 to 51.23, while the 12-month forecast increased from 52.70 to 53.62.

Growth expectations, meanwhile, weakened. The forecast for Türkiye’s GDP growth in 2026 fell from 3.8 percent to 3.5 percent, while the 2027 projection eased from 4.3 percent to 4.1 percent.