IMF lowers Türkiye’s growth forecast for 2026

BANGKOK

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent, while keeping its projection for next year unchanged at 3.6 percent.

The forecasts appeared in the October World Economic Outlook, released on Oct. 13 during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The previous estimates were published in July.

The fund expects Türkiye’s annual-average consumer inflation to reach 31.2 percent in 2026 and 26.5 percent in 2027.

Its year-end inflation forecasts stand at 29.9 percent and 23.7 percent, respectively.

Türkiye’s current account deficit is projected at 2.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, narrowing to 2.4 percent in 2027.

The unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2 percent this year and 8.3 percent next year.

Globally, the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.1 percent from 3 percent in July, while maintaining its 2027 estimate at 3.4 percent. It expects global inflation to reach 4.7 percent this year before easing to 4.1 percent next year.

The fund said growth was becoming increasingly uneven, with countries benefiting from investment in artificial intelligence performing better than many energy-importing and lower-income economies.

It warned that prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices high, weakening growth and adding to inflation pressures.

Higher government borrowing costs and renewed trade tensions also posed risks.

The IMF urged governments to strengthen public finances and ensure that support for households facing higher food and energy costs remained temporary and targeted.