IMF forecasts double-digit growth for Syria in 2026

WASHINGTON

Syria’s economy is expected to post double-digit growth in 2026 and maintain strong growth next year as agriculture, energy production, trade and services recover, the International Monetary Fund said on Aug. 4.

“Syria’s economic recovery is accelerating,” said Ron van Rooden, who led an IMF staff mission to Damascus from July 19 to 23.

The recovery began in 2025, supported by improving consumer and investor confidence after the change in government, the return of about 1.5 million refugees and Syria’s gradual reintegration into the regional and global economy, according to the Fund.

Those developments helped offset the impact of a severe drought on agriculture. Better rainfall has since supported a strong agricultural rebound, while hydrocarbon production and electricity supply have expanded and trade and services have continued to grow.

Economic activity has also benefited from continuing refugee returns, a sharp increase in visitor numbers and government spending. Poverty nevertheless remains widespread, while growth is uneven across regions, the IMF said.

Inflation, which slowed to low double-digit levels in 2025, has accelerated this year due to higher fuel and food import prices, strong domestic demand and public-sector wage increases. The Fund expects inflation to ease in 2027 if import-price pressures subside and sound fiscal and monetary policies are maintained.

The central government budget recorded a small surplus in 2025, but monetary policy remains severely constrained by a dysfunctional banking system and a lack of policy tools, the IMF said.

The mission agreed with Syrian authorities on an extensive technical assistance program covering public finances, revenue collection, banking-sector reform, financial supervision and economic statistics. The Fund said gaps in the availability and quality of economic data continued to limit a more detailed assessment.