IMF expects Turkish GDP to grow 2.9 percent in 2026

ISTANBUL

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye to 2.9 percent in its July 8 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, down from the 3.4 percent projection published in the April WEO.

For 2027, the IMF slightly raised its growth projection for Türkiye to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent.

The Turkish economy grew 2.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slowing from 3.4 percent growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product expanded by 0.1 percent, compared with 0.4 percent growth in the previous quarter.

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth projection again, flagging “uncertainty and risks” to the economic outlook as fighting reignited in the Middle East.

Global economic growth is estimated at 3 percent this year, said the fund, down from 3.1 percent in its April forecast.

The IMF expects global growth to pick up in 2027 to 3.4 percent.

Global inflation is anticipated to accelerate to 4.7 percent this year, higher than earlier projected.

The projections were made before renewed exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran.

“Developments overnight illustrate the uncertainty and risks that surround the outlook,” said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF’s research department.
“We’re going to be monitoring developments very closely,” she told reporters.