Global terrorism falls to a decade low but Western fatalities surge

LONDON

Deaths from terrorism in Western nations surged 280 percent in 2025, even as global fatalities fell to their lowest level in a decade, according to the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) released on March 19.

The report warned that the gains may be short-lived as converging crises threaten to reverse progress made against extremist violence.

The Global Terrorism Index, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, found that worldwide deaths from terrorism dropped 28 percent last year. But seven of the 19 countries that worsened on the index were Western nations, driven by youth radicalization, political polarization and rising antisemitic violence.

"The underlying conditions that drive terrorism are worsening despite improvements seen in 2025," said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP. "A fracturing world order risks erasing the hard-fought gains made against terrorism over the past decade."

Children and adolescents accounted for 42 percent of all terror-related investigations in Europe and North America in 2025. The average radicalization timeline has compressed from 16 months in 2002 to a matter of months today, driven by algorithmic amplification online.

The report found that 87 percent of radicalized minors had a history of neglect or psychological abuse, and 77 percent suffered from abandonment.

Lone-wolf actors carried out 93 percent of fatal terrorist attacks in the West since 2015 and remain three times more likely to successfully execute an attack than organized groups.

The Sahel region accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally in 2025, even as the overall death toll in the region fell. Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded the largest increases in terrorism deaths, rising 46 percent and 28 percent, respectively.

The report noted that motivations for joining terrorist groups in sub-Saharan Africa differ sharply from those in the West. For 71 percent of recruits, the final catalyst was human rights abuses by state security forces. A quarter cited a lack of job opportunities as their primary motivation, with armed groups exploiting weak governance by offering salaries to unemployed young people.

Pakistan emerged for the first time as the country most impacted by terrorism, recording 1,139 deaths and 1,045 incidents in 2025. The surge is driven partly by the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan and cross-border militant activity by the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army.

The report also highlighted a geographic pattern in modern terrorism: More than 76 percent of attacks occurred within 100 kilometers of an international border in 2025, up from just under 60 percent in 2007.

The IEP cautioned that 2026 presents multiple converging risk factors, including escalating conflicts in Iran and South Asia, deteriorating economic conditions in Western nations and the rising use of drone technology by terrorist organizations.