Fidan says airstrikes won’t topple Iran’s government, urges diplomacy

ISTANBUL

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Monday that airstrikes against Iran would not lead to the collapse of its regime.

“No, it would not collapse,” Fidan said in a live interview with CNN Turk when asked if the regime would collapse if such an attack was carried out with the aim of overthrowing it.

"I don't want to speculate on certain scenarios in Iran, but the regime won't change through an airstrike or anything else. That's a pipedream.

"What could be is the government weakens, the system weakens, and it becomes unable to provide services to the people. Then, the existing regime might choose to take much more radical decisions and perhaps try to correct the situation. It could transform itself," he added.

His remarks came as Iran and the U.S. prepare for the next round of negotiations, which resumed in Oman on Friday after a nearly eight-month suspension.

Emphasizing that the Iran issue has heavily occupied the international agenda, Fidan stressed that the region cannot withstand another war.

Fidan said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi briefed him on the negotiations and noted that Ankara has also been in contact with the U.S. side.

Describing the current tensions as an issue that is “difficult to resolve quickly,” Fidan nevertheless pointed to a clear willingness among the parties to continue negotiations.

He said calls for “more creative solutions” have gained traction and underscored the need to move away from the "threat of war."

"Currently, there doesn't seem to be an immediate threat of war," Fidan said, emphasizing that the door for negotiations has been opened.

- 'Iranians don't have atomic bombs. There is also no data that they want to build them'

Fidan said the core of tensions surrounding Iran should not be defined as the regime itself but rather the decisions and policies it pursues, arguing that focusing solely on regime change risks missing the deeper, systemic issues at play.

"The problem is not the regime itself. The problem is the decisions the regime makes and the policies it implements. Of course, how much this can be separated from the regime is another debate, but there are regimes that are far more centralized and totalistic than Iran’s," he said.

He noted that Iran is not governed by an absolute monarchy, pointing out that other states in the region operate under absolute monarchies without facing comparable international pressure.

"As long as they do not cause global problems, there are no global complaints about them. No one really cares what kind of regime they have,” he said, adding that the real source of tension lies in policy choices rather than regime type.

Fidan highlighted Iran’s dual power structure, noting the coexistence of an elected government and a supreme leader who operates outside the electoral system.

He emphasized that the supreme leader’s authority extends beyond politics into religious and spiritual domains, giving decisions taken at that level exceptional legitimacy.

“This is a rare concentration of power,” he said.

Drawing on his experience as Türkiye's former governor to the International Atomic Energy Agency before heading the National Intelligence Organization, Fidan addressed Iran’s nuclear program.

He said Tehran insists on uranium enrichment while also maintaining a religious decree from the supreme leader declaring nuclear weapons forbidden.

“With this fatwa in place, the system cannot produce a bomb,” he said. “But it develops capabilities close to weaponization, which results in sanctions and treatment as if it had already produced a bomb.”

He stressed that Iran has not taken steps toward weaponizing enriched uranium and does not possess nuclear weapons.

“The Iranians don't have atomic bombs. There is also no data that they want to build them," he said, noting that while there are assumptions about how quickly Iran could do so if it chose, these remain theoretical and are constantly revised.

He underscored that enrichment alone is insufficient.

"On the one hand, you need to enrich uranium. On the other hand, you need to develop warheads, and then you need to combine them. Now, Iran has not taken a single step in this regard, towards weaponization," he said.

Fidan said questions remain over Iran’s rationale for continuing high-level enrichment despite stating it has no intention to build nuclear weapons.

“If there is no such intention, some argue that there is no need for enrichment at this scale or for such heavy sanctions to exist,” he said.

Asked about Türkiye’s position on Iran potentially acquiring nuclear weapons, Fidan said Ankara does not want to see dramatic shifts in the regional balance of power.

“Such a development would seriously damage the spirit of cooperation in the region,” he said, warning that it could trigger a broader nuclear arms race and eventually force Türkiye and others to respond in kind.

“I do not think this would benefit the region,” he added.