Export expectations index falls , import outlook strengthens

ANKARA

Türkiye’s export expectations index fell by 4.6 points quarter-on-quarter to 96.9 in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the import expectations index rose by 12.7 points to 115.4, according to the Foreign Trade Expectations Survey released by the Trade Ministry on Oct. 8.

The export expectations index declined from 101.5 in the third quarter and was down 8.4 points compared with the same period a year earlier.

The ministry said the decline was driven by weaker assessments of current registered export orders and export order levels over the past three months. However, expectations for exports and export orders over the next three months contributed positively to the index.

Meanwhile, the import expectations index climbed to 115.4 in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter’s level, marking a 0.3-point increase from a year earlier.

According to the ministry, the increase was supported by stronger expectations for imports and import unit prices over the next three months, as well as improved assessments of current registered import orders and import order levels during the previous three months.

The Foreign Trade Expectations Survey is based on assessments by firms regarding current conditions and their outlook for trade activity in coming months.