Energy minister warns world caught in a ‘perfect storm’

AHMET HAKAN

Describing the current market turmoil as a “perfect storm,” Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has warned that the world is facing an unprecedented global energy crisis that eclipses historical shocks like past oil embargoes and the 9/11 attacks.
“The crisis we are experiencing right now is the largest energy crisis. No such crisis has been experienced in modern times,” Bayraktar told Hürriyet. “This is a larger crisis than the oil embargoes, the Yom Kippur War, the Iranian Revolution, 9/11.”
He added, “Not just Hormuz, but what is happening in Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine War and other dynamics..We are caught in a perfect storm.”
Despite these intense geopolitical pressures, Bayraktar emphasized that Türkiye has successfully insulated its domestic energy supplies.
“Despite all this, we did not experience any trouble in energy supply security,” he noted. “But we are running such a difficult operation. Supply security is very important. Had it not been for Türkiye’s great efforts, we would have experienced a lot of trouble in supply security.”
Addressing global market mechanics, Bayraktar explained that while oil prices are typically dictated by supply and demand, the current environment is defined strictly by production bottlenecks.
“While determining oil prices in the world, the basic dynamic is supply and demand. Today we see that there is a big problem in supply,” he said. “In the pandemic, there was a demand problem, now there is a supply problem. The source of the supply problem is wars and crises.”
Calling the Strait of Hormuz “the jugular vein of the world,” Bayraktar pointed out severe volume constraints.
“The world needs 104 million barrels of oil every day, 20 million of which pass through Hormuz,” he stated. “There is a huge decrease in supply, while demand continues to increase. That is why prices are going up.”
When asked about spiking diesel prices specifically, Bayraktar explained that Türkiye uses the Genoa market as its pricing benchmark. “There is a bigger problem in diesel than the problem in crude oil,” he said, noting that attacks on Russia’s oil-processing infrastructure during the Ukraine war have severely worsened the fuel crunch.
Whether prices will ease depends directly on maritime logistics and geopolitical resolutions.
“It depends on the solution of the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb problem,” Bayraktar said. “If the trouble in supply is overcome, prices will come down. We had seen oil drop to $80, even $65. Hopefully, we will see a similar situation soon.”
To reshape its long-term energy outlook, Bayraktar announced that Türkiye will soon introduce a new energy architecture focused on aggressive electrification.
“We aim to reach 13 million electric vehicles. We plan to encourage the use of electric vehicles,” he said. “Then our need for diesel will decrease. We want to substitute diesel with electricity, without touching anyone’s comfort zone. Electrification in transportation has the power to change this picture.”

As part of this roadmap, “in Türkiye’s long-term energy plan, we plan for one-third of Türkiye’s vehicle fleet to be electric and hybrid,” Bayraktar added. “With this, oil and natural gas demand can be balanced.”