Economists forecast November inflation at 1.3 percent

ANKARA

Economists participating in the AA Finans Inflation Expectation Survey estimate that Türkiye’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.31 percent in November.

The survey, conducted ahead of the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TÜİK) official release on Dec. 3, gathered responses from 32 economists.

According to the survey, monthly inflation expectations ranged between 1 percent and 1.65 percent, with the average forecast at 1.31 percent. Based on this projection, annual inflation, which stood at 32.87 percent in October, is expected to ease to 31.65 percent in November.

Economists predict inflation to close 2025 at 31.89 percent.

Meanwhile, at an event organized in London by the Union of International Democrats (UID), Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek emphasized that their current priority is to ensure price stability, noting, “Our aim is to bring inflation back down to single digits.”

Şimşek stated, “We have made significant progress. Inflation has declined from 64 percent a few years ago to 44 percent last year. By the end of this year, it will fall to around 31 percent.”

“Next year, we are very likely to reduce inflation to 20 percent or below. In the following year, our target is to bring it down to single digits,” he said.

Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan emphasized the institution’s commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved.

Speaking in Istanbul at a presentation last week, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan noted that disinflation continues, albeit at a slower pace.

He highlighted that temporary factors are expected to diminish, while adverse weather conditions have recently driven food prices higher.

Karahan added that the Monetary Policy Committee will set interest rates in line with realized and expected inflation, as well as the underlying trend, ensuring the necessary level of tightness to support the disinflation path.