EBRD upgrades Turkish GDP growth outlook for 2026

ISTANBUL

In its latest outlook, the EBRD has upgraded Türkiye's economic growth projections to 4 percent for 2026 and 4.5 percent for 2027, citing the success of the nation's macroeconomic stabilization efforts in supporting growth while curbing inflation.

The bank’s previous forecast for 2026 was 3.5 percent.

These forecasts were published on Feb. 26 in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.

Growth in Türkiye accelerated from 3.3 percent in 2024 to an estimated 3.7 percent in 2025, reflecting better-than-expected outturns across most sectors despite episodes of market volatility and a tight fiscal and monetary policy mix, the EBRD said.

Strong private consumption and investment offset lower net exports on the demand side, while weak agricultural performance was compensated for by stronger activity in other areas of production, it added.

Financial conditions stabilized and investor confidence recovered in the second half of 2025, as evidenced by narrower credit default swap spreads and improved access to international capital markets, the bank noted. It highlighted that gross international reserves climbed above $200 billion for the first time.

Average growth in the EBRD regions picked up to stand at an estimated 3.4 percent in 2025, with the Bank expecting average growth to rise to 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.7 percent in 2027. The economies where the EBRD invests are continuing to navigate global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, while resilient domestic demand and rapid adjustments in global supply chains are supporting economic activity.

The EBRD is one of Türkiye’s key investors, with more than 23 billion euros committed across the country since 2009, largely in the private sector.