Drone strikes in Black Sea raise fears of Russian escalation
SOFIA
Romanian warships sail during a Romanian Navy led exercise outside Constanta, Romania, on April 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru, File)
A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has some members of the alliance wondering if Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking escalation to test their support for Ukraine in its war against Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
The attacks in the two countries’ exclusive economic zones threaten a global shipping route and have left two people dead, with at least 25 still missing. They also run the risk of drawing other countries directly into the war for Ukraine.
Throughout the war, Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube River ports, leaving Kiev increasingly reliant on alternative routes to get its grain exports to markets in Africa and the Middle East. Russian drones have repeatedly violated Romanian airspace near some of Ukraine’s Danube ports.
In the latest incidents, fires broke out on two ships struck by drones on Oct. 14 and 15, one in Romania’s territorial waters.
Romanian President Nicusor Dan said on Oct. 15 in Brussels that “two drones” had hit the vessels but did not say whose drones they were. “There will be a reaction from the Romanian state,” he warned.
Increasingly, the suspicion falls on Russia.
“There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favors Russia, and indeed, the logic points in that direction,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told his country’s Parliament.
“The problem is that we cannot prove it.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on X on Oct. 15 that he met Radev and Dan to discuss security in the Black Sea and “the latest attacks on commercial shipping.”
“NATO has strengthened our posture along the eastern flank including with increasing counter-drone capabilities,” he said.
“NATO will continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defense posture as needed.”
A source in Romania’s defense sector, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the incidents, told The Associated Press that the attacks are designed to hurt Ukraine economically and that “Romania is not the target right now.”
“All summer we’ve been hunting all kinds of [drone] debris, water drones, sea drones, air drones, debris in the water, on the beaches,” they said. “If this continues, someone should do something about that.”
The source added they have heard Türkiye “would like to summon all the riparian [Black Sea] states to plan a mission to escort these convoys” through a militarized safe corridor.
“I’m not sure about Turkish, but our Romanian vessels don’t have anti-air defense systems to protect against drones,” they said. “That would be a high risk for the Navy, for military vessels to escort this.”
In July, Romania, Bulgaria and Türkiye expanded the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Force naval pact to “expand the missions to the protection of critical submarine infrastructure,” according to Romania’s Defense Ministry. It would include, it said, a permanent naval presence in Romania’s exclusive economic zone.
Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said on Oct. 14 that the country plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge project by the end of October. Launched in July, the initiative, which Romania also joined, aims to invest over $40 billion in “counter-drone capabilities” over the next five years.