Climate change expands dry zones in Türkiye

ISTANBUL

A study reveals Mediterranean and semi-arid climates are expanding in Türkiye, while cold zones contract and shift higher.

Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policies Application and Research Center Board Member Murat Türkeş and İzmir Bakırçay University physical geography researcher Nami Yurtseven built 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 projections using IPCC emission scenarios.

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, Mediterranean climates grew from 28.9 to 31.8 percent and semi-arid steppes from 21.9 to 24.2 percent. Cold climates dropped from 24 to 19.3 percent.

“In all future scenarios we examined, the largest area in Türkiye, approximately 40 to 45 percent, will be covered by hot and very hot subtropical Mediterranean climates,” Murat Türkeş said. Steppes will cover 30 to 35 percent and cold climates 10 percent, with desert zones expanding.

By 2070 under high emissions, Mediterranean, humid temperate and cold climates will shift 120, 220 and 290 meters higher. Black Sea forest lines will rise 120 to 220 meters. By 2099, glaciers will vanish outside the eastern Black Sea and Mount Ararat.

“It is possible to say the risk of forest fires increases with changing climate conditions in areas where the Mediterranean climate spreads,” Türkeş said.

Earlier springs and longer summers will spread fire risks from the Aegean and Mediterranean to the northwestern Marmara, western Black Sea and Inner Western Anatolia regions.

Olive, almond, fig, grape and pistachio areas will expand, while wheat, barley, sugar beets and corn yields drop in southern Central and Inner Western Anatolia. Less snow will deplete groundwater, lower dams, spur desertification and disrupt hydropower and urban water management, Türkeş said.