CIA assessment warns Israel risks civil war, state collapse: Report

WASHINGTON, DC

The Israeli flag flutters in front of a destroyed building at the site of an Iranian missile attack in Ramat Gan in central Israel near Tel Aviv, June 19, 2025. (AFP Photo)

A classified CIA assessment has warned that deepening political, economic and social fractures could put Israel at risk of civil war or state collapse, according to a report published on Oct. 5.

The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell, a unit tasked with challenging prevailing intelligence assumptions, Drop Site News reported, citing two U.S. sources familiar with its contents.

The Israeli media also published separate reports on the assessment.

The assessment points to a volatile mix of pressures ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, including economic strain, rising military spending, anger over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and escalating violence by Israeli occupiers in the occupied West Bank.

It also identifies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fight to remain in power as a source of further political and constitutional tension.

Years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have deepened existing divisions, according to the report, as soldiers return from prolonged combat, many suffering serious psychological trauma.

The military draft dispute has emerged as one of Israel’s sharpest internal fault lines, with resentment growing over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men following repeated reserve mobilizations.

The assessment also points to Israel’s growing international isolation, including eroding support in the U.S., as another factor that could deepen internal instability.