April monthly inflation seen at 3.2 percent

ISTANBUL

Türkiye’s monthly inflation rate is projected to climb to 3.19 percent in April, according to a survey conducted by AA Finans among economists.

The poll, which included 29 economists, showed expectations for April inflation ranging between 2.50 percent and 3.60 percent. Based on the average forecast of 3.19 percent, annual inflation — recorded at 30.87 percent in March — is expected to increase to 31.11 percent in April.

Meanwhile, economists’ average inflation expectation for the end of 2026 stood at 28.16 percent as of April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.94 percent in March.

Leading indicators suggest that in April, consumer prices will be driven by energy and food prices, whereas the underlying trend will increase slightly, the Central Bank said in the summary of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which was published on April 30.

“Given the size of price volatility and supply constraints in commodities, the uncertainty over the inflation outlook has substantially increased,” it warned.

The bank reiterated that in case of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, which can also be driven by the recent developments, monetary policy stance will be tightened, adding that it remains highly attentive to upside risks on inflation.

At last month’s MPC meeting, the bank decided to keep the policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate, at 37 percent.