2026 inflation expectations at 23.2 percent: Survey

ANKARA

Türkiye’s Central Bank reported in its latest Survey of Market Participants that year-end consumer inflation expectations for 2026 stand at 23.23 percent.

The announcement comes as inflationary pressures show signs of easing, with the Consumer Price Index dropping to 30.89 percent in December 2025, the lowest annual level in 49 months.

Expectations for the 12-month horizon have been revised downward to 22.20 percent from 23.35 percent in the previous survey, while the 24-month outlook slipped to 16.94 percent from 17.45 percent.

In its latest Medium-Term Program, covering the period of 2026-28, the government projected the end-of-year inflation for this year at 16 percent. The government’s inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028 are 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The survey released on Jan. 16 also highlighted currency projections, with participants forecasting the year-end U.S. dollar-Turkish Lira exchange rate at 51.17. The 12-month exchange rate expectation rose slightly to 51.89 from 51.08 in the prior period.

Growth forecasts remained steady, with participants maintaining their 2026 GDP growth expectation at 3.9 percent. For 2027, the outlook improved modestly, with growth anticipated at 4.3 percent.