Terror as a political factor
In all surveys, terror is the number-one issue. Of course, terror is Turkey’s number-one problem. And indeed, it affects politics too as the first factor. Leaving aside factors such as unemployment, economy and foreign policy, when the government that conducts major operations against terror, it increases its votes. This increase occurs through votes taken from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
The conservative Kurdish votes that have been cast for the HDP so that the Kurdish issue would be solved without arms are returning to the AK Party. On June 7, the HDP’s votes were 13 percent… Terror and anti-terror operations started; on Nov. 1, HDP’s votes went down to 10.8 percent; the party barely crossed the threshold.
According to Gezici’s latest survey, its votes are 7.3 percent. Even if you add or subtract a couple of points for the margin of error, it does not make a difference.
Those in the HDP who are not “soldiers of the KCK” should read this picture very carefully. Conservatives in the HDP and social democrats such as Celal Doğan should start an action within the party against the KCK tutelage; the HDP should renew itself and become a resolution party without resorting to terror.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s performance in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly was very good; as a citizen I congratulate him.
Those HDP members who are not militants of the KCK should see this reality: Paradoxically, terror organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIL are introducing the West to the evil of terror. The refugee issue has shown that if the ethnic problems in the Middle East are not solved with democratic methods, then it brings several troubles to Europe.
In this era, terror, besides being a barbarity, is absolutely wrong politically. The Mao, Ho and Pol Pots who were inspirations for the PKK are as past and backward as the medieval times.
When we think about the MHP, there has always been a significant back-and-forth between the AKP and the MHP.
On June 7, the MHP received 16.3 percent of the votes, causing the AKP to lose single-party rule. The main reasons for this were that in the large nationalist-conservative grassroots, the AKP votes eroded due to concerns that the government made concessions to the terror organization in addition to corruption.
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli focused his election campaign on “terror and corruption.” Immediately after June 7, the PKK triggered terror and the government started extensive operations on July 25.
And in the Nov. 1 elections, MHP lost 2 million votes, dropping to 11.9 percent.
These words of the president are based on this sociopolitical reality: “In the case that two parties come together, a homegrown and national constitution could be written. I believe that between the ruling party and the MHP, there is more than a least common denominator; there are maximum shared values.” (March 21, 2016)
A two-party constitution may create the sentiment of “exclusion” in at least one third of Turkey; I am sure Professor Ahmet Davutoğlu would also agree on that.
Constitutions should definitely be much more inclusive.
In the Gezici survey, the MHP’s votes have gone down to 8.9 percent. There could be a few points of error margin in every survey, but it is obvious that the MHP is at a critical point.
The votes of CHP are in a frozen situation; always at 25 percent. Nothing new came out of the last renewal congress either.
Now, the MHP is at a critical juncture. Instead of unpleasant accusations, this party should find a way to address the people with policies that meet the standards of great nationalist intellectuals in the past.
One of the essential pillars of democracy, checks and balances, is not only necessary for powers but also for the political spectrum.
