New staff to determine course of economy
We are again talking about the “new economy administration,” just as we did one year ago after the elections. We are again saying “the markets will self-direct themselves after viewing the economy administration staff.”
In the meanwhile, two elections have been held. As a result, a strong single-party government was formed but the life of this government was short. Thus, the new government and its economy staff are back on the agenda. After Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said he was to quit, the markets again turned their eyes to the new cabinet and economy-related ministers.
The biggest difference in the debate now is that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will appoint the staff totally according to his wishes. Besides the “low-profile” prime minister debates, Erdoğan will be able to fully reflect his economic views on to real life. It has been wondered who the new ministers related to the economy and the relevant deputy prime minister will be. Also, possible changes in the economy civil service are also being discussed.
The eyes of foreign and local market players are on the cabinet ministers and civil servants to be appointed. Intense debates are ongoing about who will be appointed to which position and what the consequences would be. These discussions, we hear, are also carried out within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Current prices in the market show that the risk concerning the new cabinet and the economy staff has not been bought yet. The general opinion is “Erdoğan will not risk the current order.” Markets have been continuing to find their direction according to global developments in recent days. Domestically, the assumption is that such names that have a possibility to risk the economy will not be made ministers or top civil servants.
For this reason, the markets have not yet bought this risk.
On the other hand, the atmosphere in Ankara lobbies is not as clear as what the markets see. Before anything else, who will be the prime minister is at the center of debates. Most people agree that Erdoğan actually wants his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak. On the other hand, there are many who comment that Albayrak would not be made prime minister at such a time so as to not wear him out and also because Erdoğan knows there would be reactions from within the party, so he would not take such a step.
Who the prime minister will be is very important, but the name to be appointed to the position of deputy prime minister in charge of the economy is also being monitored carefully. Even if Albayrak is not made the prime minister, there are some who predict he will be the deputy prime minister in charge of the economy.
Some sources close to the AKP say that Albayrak will remain at the energy minister position while Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek will continue so that the markets are not appalled. Meanwhile, that Deputy Prime Minister Lütfü Elvan will not be in the new cabinet has almost been agreed upon.
Obviously these debates will continue in the next month or so before we have the answers to these questions. The new economy administration may have more significance than ever. a