The 2009 Greek elections: Déjà vu?

“Is he not committing political suicide?” I asked my friend on the other side of the line.

“You may call it that, but you may also call it a move of great political courage,” he replied, in an attempt to persuade both himself and me. “He had no other choice. The next six months were to be much worse. Strikes and demonstrations were planned. It was going to be hell. He could not take the risk.”

My friend, like many other political friends of the Greek center-right government, who was awarded with a prestigious appointment at one of the country’s major public institutions, was sounding quite depressed. In fact, he was already preparing his suitcase for an honorable exit.

“If he loses, I will go. They may offer that I stay, but I will resign,” he said, falling short of spelling out the name of the leader who might replace Costas Karamanlis. My friend, a man in his late 50s, was wise enough to not be sure of the outcome of the Oct. 4 general elections. Unlike the enthusiastic followers of the leader of the main opposition party, he holds the view that a possible catastrophic result putting an end to the Karamanlis era in Greece does not necessarily secure victory for George Papandreou.

Two years ago, the political scene in Greece was looking hauntingly similar. On Aug. 16, 2007, Prime Minister Karamanlis had visited the country’s president and asked for the dissolution of the parliament in order to go to early elections one month later. The reasons he cited were “reforms in the national education system, the economy and the new year’s budget,” which was expected to be a tough one. The problems of the economy were blamed on the previous government of the left-centrist PASOK party.

Just eight days after that, on Aug. 24, a series of deadly fires destroyed thousands of acres of forest and farmland in Peloponnese and Euboea, leaving 64 people dead and thousands homeless. The government, caught by surprise, scarcely managed to tackle one of the worst natural disasters in Greece. But against all odds, and thanks mainly to the personal popularity of the prime minister, it succeeded in securing a fresh mandate in the Sept. 16 general elections, winning 41.83 percent of the votes and securing 152 seats in the 300-strong Parliament.

The 2007 victory caused – as expected – a leadership challenge for the main opposition party of PASOK, but Papandreou managed to secure his post by getting reelected as leader after a tough internal battle against his main opponent, E. Venizelos.

Two years later, after a series of graft scandals that drew in government party ministers, deputies, officials and affiliates, members of business circles and clergy, plus several dismissals, resignations and reshuffles, August 2009 also brought a wave of catastrophic fires and resulted in a request by the government to again go for early elections.

The Greek prime minister announced this year’s early elections Sept. 2 and the date was set for Oct. 4. This time, Karamanlis sought a fresh mandate to more effectively tackle the next two years of his term, which, he said, will be especially difficult and decisive for the Greek economy. With his personal rating sliding and facing a strong party reaction to his decision, he asked the approval of the public “for a stricter control of the public expenses, for a war against tax evasion and for necessary structural reforms vital for economic growth.”

A few days before the announcement of the October elections, a series of raging fires had destroyed the last remaining forest belts around the capital city of Athens, leaving the owners of the new luxury villas with nothing but fury at the authorities’ inability to manage yet another major natural disaster in their land.

The physical and political scenery of 2009 looks painfully like déjà vu. But not quite.

This year’s early general elections include several additional factors that may be crucial for the future politics of Greece. Some of these factors became apparent in a major opinion poll published yesterday in the Greek press.

According to the survey, conducted by Kapa Research, around 26 percent of respondents do not know or want to declare which party they will support. This is quite unusual for Greek politics, where the electorate is traditionally fairly sure of its political leanings. The unusually high percentage of undecided voters leads to another interesting finding: the relatively low percentage of support for the two main parties, with the main opposition PASOK getting 30.8 percent against the governing party’s 24.1 percent, which might not be enough for it to form a government by itself. However, analysts of the survey believe the trends now point to a possible clear victory by PASOK. This is supported by the response of 65.5 percent of survey participants who, irrespective of their own party preferences, think PASOK is going to be the winner. Only 10.9 percent thought that of the New Democracy Party.

Yet the high percentage of undecided voters may still upset the final result as it expresses a deep disappointment within society about the current political scene. And in spite of the strong trend towards PASOK, 60 percent of the respondents believe the party does not have a specific plan to tackle the economic crisis in the country and 56.8 percent believe it is not ready to govern.

Against such a confusing picture, with an electorate that has lost its trust in politics, it is hard to make secure predictions. The conspiracy theorists in Greece believe that behind it all is the big capital (and the Americans), which would like a coalition government by the two main parties and a weak opposition in order to push its interests forward. Many predict that a defeat in the elections will allow energetic Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyiannis to take over the party. But a high percentage of the public, over 50 percent, said they want a one-party government, while around 45 percent said they want a coalition government between one big and one small party. Only 16.6 percent said they would see a coalition between two main parties as a solution.

My friend on the other end of the line has some final thoughts: “There will be no clear winner on Oct. 4,” he says. “We will have new elections in November. And Karamanlis may still have a chance.”

If a day is too long in politics, a month is even longer. Let’s talk about it again next week.