Armenian experts skeptical on Turkish-Armenian thaw

The recent thaw between Turkey and Armenia, which are nearing a historic diplomatic agreement after years of animosity over alleged killings of Armenians during the late days of the Ottoman Empire, has been met with cynicism from some senior Armenian experts.

“For nearly 100 years, Turkey has denied the genocide fact that has wrecked Armenians. This hostility will not end unless the Turkish government accepts responsibility for the genocide,” said Ara Khachatourian, editor of Asbarez Daily News, one of the leading diaspora newspapers published in the United States.

Razmig Panossian, author and director of Policy for Programs and Planning at Rights and Democracy in Canada, agreed with Khachatourian, saying that he does not believe the long-standing hostility between the two nations will be solved in the near future. “It would be wrong to expect such a delicate historic trauma to come to a solution in a short time.” However, Panossian also said the dialogue between Turkey and Armenia should be encouraged despite the problematic timing and the thorny issues that are waiting to be solved.

Armenia claims up to 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed in 1915 under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey denies this, saying that any deaths were the result of civil strife that erupted when Armenians took up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia.

Turkey and Armenia agreed on steps toward establishing full diplomatic ties for the first time between the neighbors in late August. Despite fierce domestic and international opposition, the two countries are expected to sign a landmark diplomatic deal this weekend in Zurich.

Diplomatic sources said both countries are now in a win-win situation, while admitting that the job of Armenian President Serge Sarkisian was much more difficult considering the protests of the Armenian diaspora, which were evident in Paris, New York and Los Angeles.

Khacatourian said the protest against Sarkisian would continue “because it is a basic right of the diaspora.” But, Panossian’s stance on the protests differs from Khacatourian. He said there are two diasporas: the “post-genocide diaspora” and the “post-1988 diaspora.”

“The ‘post-genocide diaspora’ will oppose Sarkisian’s policies toward Turkey due to its ultra-nationalist nature. On the other hand, the birthplace of the ‘post-1988 diaspora’ is Armenia and this group would support Armenia, therefore the policies of Sarkisian, whatever it costs,” he told Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review for the fourth edition of the Postcard from Armenia series.

Diaspora’s stance:

After the signing ceremony in Switzerland, the documents that aim to establish full ties will be dispatched to the respective parliaments for ratification. The ceremony will be followed by the World Cup qualifying match that will take place in Bursa on Oct. 14 between the Turkish and Armenian national teams.

The first protocol, covering the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the second, on the further development of bilateral relations, are accompanied by an annex that sets a clear timetable for the implementation of both.

A first sign of rapprochement came in September last year, when Turkish President Abdullah Gül went to the Armenian capital, Yerevan, to visit Sarkisian and watch a World Cup soccer qualifying match between the two countries.

The two neighbors have no diplomatic relations and their border has been closed since 1993, after Turkey’s decision to support its key ally, Azerbaijan, against Yerevan's backing of ethnic Armenian separatists in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Khacatourian also criticized Turkey for its Nagorno-Karabakh precondition to opening the Turkish-Armenian border. “Turkey has unilaterally closed the border and now it puts the Nagorno-Karabakh problem as the precondition to open it. Turkey is playing innocent at every stage and does not accept its responsibilities. The border should be opened with no preconditions because that is the fair thing to do.”

Panossian also said Turkey should not link the matter of the border opening with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, urging the two countries to open their borders immediately. “Rather than discussing preconditions, the border between the two countries should be opened and diplomatic relations should begin,” he said

In our fifth Postcard from Armenia, geologists tell of the obstacles they have faced during their groundbreaking work near the Turkish-Armenian border.