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NURAY MERT > The importance of the deal with Iran

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It was unexpected, and yet inevitable. Last week, two giant steps were taken by the U.N. and the U.S.; the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed a resolution on Syrian chemical weapons that was supported in advance by Syria and Iran. Then, the U.S. and Iran started high level talks to resolve their problems. On the one hand, it was unexpected, since there has always been a chance to resolve Syrian crises and indeed Iranian crises, through diplomatic effort, but no parties in the conflict were convinced that it was the best chance, until very recently. On the other hand it was an inevitable move, as the Syrian crisis has only got worse since it started two and half years ago and Iranian crisis has not been solved more than 30 years after the Islamic Revolution and a new approach was finally needed. I could not be happier that it eventually happened, as I always thought that unless the confrontation between Iran and the West could be solved by peaceful means there would not be any chance to end bitter regional conflicts. Still, it is only the beginning of a long way to go.

At the very beginning of a long path, we need to understand why everything has suddenly turned upside down - whether or not in a positive way - so that Syria and Iran stopped being defined as “forces of evil” and turned into political actors. First of all, it was the unsustainability of the present situation in Syria that forced all parties of the conflict to seek a way out. In the beginning, the Western powers failed to recognize the complexity of the Syrian situation, and that Syria was not only an important ally of Iran but also an indispensable partner. They also failed to recognize that it was a sort of “Ukraine of the Middle East” for Russia and that it would not compromise its stance. Nevertheless, all of these reasons alone could not push the U.S. and Western powers in general to search for a compromise, unless a Western alliance with the “moderate” Islamic forces and governments in the region failed dramatically.

It is not only that the West invested too much hope in moderate Islamic forces as the new forces of democratization in Muslim world, but that these forces could not deliver good governance in any sense, neither in Egypt nor even in Tunisia. There is no doubt that this played a role, but the major disappointment was the discovery of the fact that moderates might not be as “moderate” as assumed. In fact, the disenchantment started with the violent protests condemning a movie (insulting the Prophet Muhammad), produced by an obscure American producer. The events culminated in the attack on the U.S. Embassy compound in Benghazi and the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya, on Sept. 11, 2012, which created a shock and had an instant impact on U.S. politics. It was the presidential election period in the U.S. and it put at risk Obama’s prospects for a second term. Under those circumstances, Obama needed to revise his relations with “moderates,” as even if it was radicals in Libya who killed the U.S. ambassador, so-called moderate forces were in power in all those countries where protesters turned violent and targeted the U.S. Moreover, it was the Egyptian government that could not take a firm stance against the violent protests, so much so that Obama came to state that he could “not define Egypt as an ally, but also not as an enemy.”

The case of Turkey, as a failed model for democracy in Muslim countries, has also had its impact on the disenchantment with moderate Islamists. It was not only that the Turkey model failed to achieve genuine democracy, but also that Turkey’s policy in Syria turned out to be at odds with its Western allies. First, rumors and then some evidence started to be circulated that Turkey was somehow supporting (indirectly, if not directly) the radical Islamist opposition. Besides, the moderates of Turkey turned out to be rather anti-Western and often accused the Western world of being “conspirators” in Muslim world.

In sum, the moderate “Sunni allies” started to seem no less risky to engage with than the “Shia enemies” of the West. At that point, Iran came to be a more reasonable partner than ever, after the moderate Hassan Rouhani came to office and started to send warm messages to West. Besides, Iran has a stable political governance structure to deal with, unlike shaky allies. The situation in Syria is similar, where the opposition turned not only to be much weaker than expected, but also proved to be untrustworthy in all respects, even dangerous. Finally, it has turned out to be worth trying to talk to a predictable enemy/enemies rather than committing too much to unpredictable allies. The deal with Iran is no a minor matter, and is going to be a major turning point in Middle Eastern politics.

September/30/2013

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ilker avni

9/30/2013 5:34:56 PM

Turkey will benifit to the tune of 30 billion a year if sanctions are lifted on Iran,Turkey allways on the loseing side when it comes to us sanctions,Iraq,Iranian sanctions hurt Turkeys economy.@ man in the middle well said.

Man in the Middle

9/30/2013 4:52:45 PM

Danny, Israel's existence as a nuclear armed country, which is willing to use it, is not under threat. Israel itself the incubator and perpetrator of state generated terrorism, illegal occupation and religion-based Apartheid. The only reason why Israel barks is to play the victim, and to divert attention from its crimes. The world has caught on to that one. The Buenos Aires, and Nairobi "reminders" had nothing to do with Iran. You are entitled to your opinion, but you are entitled to your facts.

Danny B Danny

9/30/2013 11:26:24 AM

KM, Israel doesn't whisper, Israel shouts and warning. as contrary to other countries in the world, Israel is under threat against its existence. Day and night the Iranian threaten to wipe out Israel from the map and backing it up not only with verbal threats but with actions as well through their evil messengers the Hezballa. A reminder we got it Jewish center in Buenos Aires, in Burgas and last week shopping center owned by Israeli in Nairobi,

DORUS LIVIS

9/30/2013 11:09:35 AM

It becomes more and more obvious that US and the west in general are not willing anymore to play the role of police around the world and that is good. the opportunity of building bridges with Iran's new President was great and beneficial for both sides.Let's hope that they will find solutions through diplomacy for the sake of peace.

Agnes Smith

9/30/2013 10:51:42 AM

In sum all AKP policies have backfired.

Niko Labes

9/30/2013 9:56:59 AM

Brilliant and accurate... Ms Nuray Mert ...You have a beautiful mind

K M

9/30/2013 7:26:00 AM

I certainly hope that you are right. For too long, the US (whispered at by Israel?) has believed that the Shia state actors are the more dangerous, even though the Sunni terrorists are by far the more active and less discriminate in their violence. The former serve direct political purposes, the latter a holy war (even against Shiites) without bound. I do, however, wonder why the effects of the sanctions against Iran don't figure into your calculations. That's quite an oversight.
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