Is this Game Theory or general elections?
As you know, “Game Theory” is the theory for which mathematician John Nash, who passed away a couple of days ago, won the Nobel Prize in 1994.
This theory was the spoiler of our youth in the “Mathematical Economy” course at Boğaziçi University. But in a scene in the film “A Beautiful Mind” depicting the life of John Nash, the essence of the theory is explained in a simple way: Four male students see a group of young girls. All of them liked the blonde one. But if all four of them flirted with the blonde one, most probably she would not go with any of them. The young men decided to flirt with the brunette girls because their aim was to get a girl this way or that way. This choice would enable each young man to reach his goal and at the same time increase the success rate of the group. We can explain it as “for competing sides, instead of aiming for the highest target and losing it all, find equilibrium where all competitors will benefit.” The theory is used in economy and social sciences. Many believe that it is even present in Survivor shows.
Now the testing of the voter with parliamentary arithmetic has started. Even the guy at the teahouse is now able to calculate the number of seats the parties will gain in the event the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) crosses the election threshold.
There are people who are not HDP voters but who will vote for the HDP out of fear that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) might gain enough seats to introduce the presidential system. The majority of this group is assumed to be AK Party or main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) voters. However, there was a statement from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) on May 26, Tuesday that debated the most complicated of all arguments that would even crush the Game Theory: Deputy Chair of MHP Semih Yalçın said, “If the AK Party goes, the HDP will also go. If the HDP goes, the AK Party will not be able to find the majority to change the constitution. They are soulmates.”
If we take this statement and the arithmetic into consideration, then if the HDP crosses the threshold, the AK Party may go. Well, then, if the AK party goes together with the HDP, then should we vote for the HDP so that it crosses the threshold so that it goes? Do you mean that the MHP voter should vote for the HDP?
Come on now, can there be an election based on these probability calculations? Is the Turkish citizen John Nash? With two weeks left until the June 7 elections, 15 percent of voters are still undecided. This is normal in these circumstances. In previous elections, the voter would go to the polls with the thought in mind, “These guys are the best for me; I will vote for them.” Now, what will the voter do?
Why do we need to suffer when Greece does not pay?
Greece has done one of the pushiest things a country can ever do in its history. It told the IMF: “Hey, look, I’ve got no money. I will not pay my debt to you,” and closed the matter. If an ordinary citizen who has a huge debt to the corner store acts like this, he will get a slight beating. But when it is a country, there cannot be any beating of course.
Moreover, the market was stirred with concern, “What if Portugal, Spain and Italy act with the same cheekiness?”
What will happen now? Economists are saying that if Greece exits the eurozone, then foreign exchange rates will again increase in Turkey. Since most of our exports are made to the eurozone, when the dollar gains value against the euro, then our exports will seem as if they have shrunk. The current account deficit will increase, and markets will be tense. Oh my God, should we prescribe anxiety pills for the markets? I am so tired of this business of “keeping the markets away from anxiety.”
Well, what would change in our lives, as ordinary citizens? What I understand from this is the following: as happens in every crisis in the country and in the world, one should buy dollars and save them somewhere, while one should also buy macaroni and save it somewhere. When we were about to get engaged to the EU, the EU dumped us, leaving us with a lot of debt; now what do you say to that?