Moderate increase in growth
After last year’s low growth trend, it is being felt that the economy is recovering. Even though the data as to the New Year have not arrived yet, market movements, as expected, are pointing out to a “moderate recovery.”
Markets think that business is developing in line with the expectations of the Central Bank. For this reason, no change in current policies is expected for some time. Market experts said the recovery had started to be felt starting from the end of last year and that this recovery was moderate. Bank experts, who have made an evaluation viewing the first data that have reached the market, agree that the official data - to arrive in the coming months - will confirm the moderate growth figure.
It can be seen that developments in foreign markets and the abundance of liquidity continued to run a course in favor of developing countries such as Turkey. With Turkey receiving its first ratings upgrade, the rise in short term capital movements has become quite apparent.
On the contrary, market analysts remind that the Central Bank is continuing to adopt a cautious stance. It is for this reason that a moderate rise in growth is being experienced and that a gradual recovery, not accelerating too much, was the choice of the economy administration. Consequently, it is considered as certain that the growth rate is expected to remain under 3 percent in 2012, but will definitely meet its 4 percent target in 2013. We should say that the general average estimation for 2013 growth is around 4.5 percent.
The global climate is creating the appropriate ground for Turkey to realize its moderate growth rate. When we view the global economy, even though things have not totally been straightened out, in general, the fact that the stance of developed countries has become clear facilitates calculations projected into the future.
Global climate appropriate
The start of the recovery of growth in China lately is perceived as a positive development in the name of the global economy. Besides that, Japan’s decision to coinage unlimitedly to recover demand, especially from the angle of the abundance of global liquidity, has been a decision relieving all markets.
The arrival positive data on the U.S., and also the fact that while moderate growth has begun, inflation is not yet regarded as a problem, is a factor relieving the global economy. For now, the only problem in the United States is the budget debate that will be finalized in March. The continuation of this conflict creates a tension in the market; however, generally in the markets there is a strong expectation that the Republicans and the Democrats will finally agree on the budget.
Also, even though news concerning European economies is not positive, the fact that it is already known what will be done allows the markets to see ahead. It is obvious that Europe, without devaluating the euro, even though the decline in growth will continue, has opted to comfort the people this way before elections. In other words, Europe is postponing the solution again.
In short, the course in the global economy also suits Turkey’s calculations.