Economic bill of Germany crisis is costly
The economic bill of the crisis between Turkey and Germany would be much costly than expected. I believe it is more accurate to see Germany not just as a country with which we have close economic relations but also an influential actor in the European Union and even in the Western Alliance.
We need to remind that the economic relations between Germany and Turkey are very tight. For example, Germany ranked first in the first six months of the year in its exports; 10 percent of our total exports are realized with this country. We need to know that the oldest foreign capital companies in Turkey are German ones and that this flow is continuing. We need to know that financial relations are tight and, although on decline in the course of these past years, the share of Germans in tourism is high.
In other words, the negative effects of the slowdown of economic relationship with Germany will weigh down heavily on Turkey’s economy.
Of course this situation is valid for Germany too.
It is worth mentioning that the negative effect on Turkey will be much more serious if Germany were to use its power in the economic and international relations area against Turkey. The German economy is very strong and its influence in the world has increased in parallel. I think the harm it will suffer from losing Turkey will be less than what our loss would be.
Don’t forget that Germany has significant influence on EU decisions.
This power comes from its economic stance.
For the continuation of the EU as an anchor for Turkey, it is important that relations with Germany do not enter dire straits.
For example, one of the most urgent topics on the agenda with the EU is the uprating of the Custom Unions Agreement.
An important progress has been registered and we know that the real sector and markets in Turkey have great expectations for the renewal of the agreement. If this does not happen, there will certainly be great disappointment.
If the crisis with Germany gets deeper, the suspension of this agreement will become inevitable.
Effects of Western values on the public’s money
The perception created by the Turkish government vis-à-vis its foreign relations in recent days is along the lines of: “Qatar is enough for Turkey, we can live without others.”
The effects of foreign relations on the economy and on the public’s economic situation cannot be understood by a large portion of the people.
However, it seems everybody will understand this effect with time. There is no need to repeat it: The Turkish economy cannot achieve high enough to secure the welfare of its people without foreign capital. A country in this situation needs to follow a balanced and peaceful policy in its foreign relations in order to avoid hardships in its economy.
If the capital flow comes from the West, then you need to get along well with them and show an administrative stance that is in line with Western values.
You are neither Russia nor a gulf country. Besides, even these countries started getting along well with the West because of their interests.
If you get away from fundamental values like democracy and freedom of press, as can be seen in the case of the trial of daily Cumhuriyet journalists, which started this week, the West will take a stance against you.