Will the HDP cross the threshold?
I have gone through all the surveys; I have read all the questionnaires; I have talked to analysts; I have spoken to researchers; I have asked around and investigated.
My conclusions are these: It is difficult to say the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) will cross the threshold. It is also difficult to say it will not cross the threshold.
“10 percent.” This is all the HDP gets, all it can ever get. This could be 9.8 percent, or it could be 10.2 percent. On the night of the Election Day, we will all stay up all night to see whether or not the HDP has crossed the threshold.
Maybe throughout the whole night, the HDP will sometimes be set to cross the threshold, sometimes to remain below the threshold.
Knife-edge is the perfect expression to explain the situation of the HDP. For this reason, none of the researchers can say for sure whether it will cross or remain below the 10 percent.
As a result, the HDP is in such a situation that every single vote has a huge value.
Why is Erdoğan at rallies?
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is hitting town squares delivering speeches because he believes that Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is not adequate; because he has noticed the drop in the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Parti) votes; because he believes that once he holds rallies, the AK Parti’s votes will rise; because he wants to counter the economic pledges of the opposition with a religious-themed agenda. He is in town squares delivering speeches because he wants to make the opposition engage in polemics with him; because he does not believe the AK Parti will be able to make a huge leap in the election without his voice being heard; because he wants to prevent conservative Kurdish votes from going to the HDP, thus keeping the HDP under the election threshold.
Upon the threat of Süleyman Soylu
It was only a few years ago that Süleyman Soylu was a politician who was attacking the AK Parti and its leader Tayyip Erdoğan. Back then there were no boundaries in his words.
For instance, he uttered this sentence: “This country has a prime minister who is aggressive against everyone and who creates chaos.” There is also this sentence: “Just as the prime minister was unable to ride a horse, he was also unable to rule the country.” He also said: “Due to mistaken economic policies, the AKP government has poisoned holidays for the nation. People have forgotten how to smile.” He also said: “A government that pledged to fight corruption has drowned Turkey in a pit of corruption.” He said: “The prime minister wants to see himself as a sultan.” He said: “We have an almsgiving culture in our country. But one in every three people is below the poverty line. It is the government that has made people suffer so much.” He said: “He [Erdoğan] thinks he is like [former Prime Minister] Adnan Menderes. Who are you and who is Menders? Never even utter the name Menderes.”
Süleyman Soylu, who said all these things, woke up one morning, swallowed all his sentences, and became a member of the AK Parti. Recently, he said: “Tayyip Erdoğan is the president of Turkey forever.”
This Süleyman Soylu took the microphone the other day and out of the blue openly threatened Hürriyet’s proprietor Aydın Doğan: “I want to address Aydın Doğan from here: Look Aydın Doğan, you will pay the price for this.”
Süleyman Soylu will make him pay… Well, Süleyman Soylu, when will you pay for all those swearwords and insults you said for the AK Party and Tayyip Erdoğan? Give up making others pay. First of all you should pay the price of all these swearwords and insults.
If you do not pay the price, then at least make an explanation. “I was using swearwords until just a couple of years ago, now I am praising them for these reasons…”
Do not forget, Süleyman Soylu, empty threats do not make you more of a man.
Those who are considered men are those who can face themselves and their past. You should first of all settle accounts with your own self and then we will see about the rest…
