Why did Kurds not march to Sur?
Kurds did not march to Diyarbakır’s Sur district. It was because a population does not march just because some people tell them to “march.” It is because a population marches only and only when they are already determined to march. It is because Kurds are not only cross at the state but they are also cross at those who tell them to “march.”
It is because the Kurds are aware that not only the state but also those who tell them to march are not seeking a solution.
It is because Diyarbakır is tired, exhausted, fed up and angry. Diyarbakır lacks any enthusiasm and hope. The city is pessimistic.
It is because the people of Diyarbakır blame all who created the Sur drama equally.
It is because the regional population does not believe in fighting for “self-administration.” It is because the regional population expects those who urge to march them to do other things.
It is because the regional population is utterly fed up by being taken for granted by others all the time.
Seven careful political forecasts
1) I think Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will not ever oppose President Erdoğan. Those who are waiting for this will be disappointed big time.
2) Probably, the leadership chair of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will belong to Meral Akşener after a very tough and very complicated process.
3) I don’t know about Abdullah Gül but probably Bülent Arınç and friends have started cruising toward forming a separate party.
4) Most probably President Erdoğan will take the necessary steps to get his presidential system without giving the opposition an opportunity to stop him and he will not take too much time.
5) The 14 deputies who are needed for the presidential system will probably be found in the opposition parties. And again probably 14 deputies are already arranged from the MHP, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
6) In the medium term, I am ready to bet we will see Deniz Baykal as the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) Antalya deputy.
7) If I am not mistaken, they will not leave Selin Sayek Böke alone in the CHP. They will convince her that she is good for the leadership of the party and will cause a tragedy even if it may not be as big as Emine Ülker Tarhan’s.
Extracts from a film every politician should watch
I watched a film titled “Our Brand Is Crisis.” The film depicts how advisors from the U.S. worked during the 2002 Bolivian presidential elections. It is an extremely interesting story of American campaign managers’ struggles and their strategy of smear campaigns to politically influence a country as poor, exploited and traditional as Bolivia. I highly recommend this film to all politicians and politics-enthusiasts. I present you, more or less, with some extracts from the film:
“A man’s strengths flow from the same well as his weaknesses.”
“When people are scared, they go for a wartime leader”
“There is one mistake in an election campaign: Losing.”
“Ye who are not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.”
“In politics, perception matters…”
To make her point, an advisor tells a coarse story about former president Lyndon Johnson: in one of his early congressional campaigns, he allegedly told one of his aides to spread a gross rumor about his opponent. Johnson’s aide exclaimed that the charge was obviously untrue. “Of course,” said the candidate, “but I want to hear him deny it.”
“You know, when Adlai Stevenson was running for president, a woman came up to him after a rally one night and said, ‘Every thinking person will be voting for you.’ Stevenson said ‘Madam, that’s not enough. I need a majority.’”