Why did Israel lose Turkey?

Ostensibly, the Israelis had a strong argument when they smiled and shrugged off all potential problems as they based their comfort on an assumption that was, in the end, too simple and unrealistic: “The Justice and Development Party, or AKP, may have been largely inspired – albeit to a disputed degree – by Islamism. But they are pragmatists. Everything will be fine with them. After all, they’re not terrorists, are they?”

Certainly, the AKP is not a terrorist organization. And the Israeli optimism was understandable. If you spend a month in Israel you will cherish every Islamist who does not bomb and shoot you. But there had to be limits. And that’s precisely where Israeli optimism has failed.

In the span of a few years, Turkey and Israel have moved from a working regional alliance, which many mistakenly tagged as “strategic,” to anything but an alliance. Even when the Israelis were being comforted by Turkish assurances, Turkey’s Middle East policy was changing track.

When Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said “One minute!” to President Shimon Peres at Davos and that the “Israelis just knew how to kill well,” the Israelis were briefly alarmed but then took comfort in the soothing words of Turkish diplomacy. Erdoğan was just trying to win a few more votes in the then-forthcoming local polls. Later, everything would come up roses. But it didn’t.

Suddenly the Israelis noticed that Turkey was not only a biased broker between Israel and Syria, but was also rapidly becoming Syria’s best friend. Before that was fully digested, Erdoğan defended Iran’s nuclear ambitions, pointing his finger at Israel once again. Finally, less than a week after Turkey informed Israel that it was unwelcome at the Anatolian Eagle military exercises, a shining delegation of 10 Turkish cabinet ministers and 29 parliamentarians rushed to the Syrian border to celebrate the lifting of visas, or, in the joint Turkish-Syrian wording, to celebrate their countries’ “common past, common future.”

Naturally, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said the Turkish decision to expel the Israeli Air Force from the drill had been “extremely welcome.” Simultaneously, Syria announced that Ankara and Damascus had agreed to have joint military exercises that will be “more comprehensive and bigger than those held last spring.”

Now, the Israelis do not know whether they should be greatly upset, complain about the situation or try further in vain to salvage a relationship with the AKP that was never what the Israelis thought it was. The fresh issue is the trailer of a TV series shown on state television featuring blood-thirsty Israeli soldiers sadistically killing Arab children. A stamp then appears on the frozen scene of Israeli atrocities with the message: “One minute!”

Funny, the Foreign Ministry claimed the decision to oust Israel from the exercises was a “technical matter.” It reminded me of Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek’s explanation of the unprecedented tax fine against the Doğan Media Group: it was “purely technical,” he said. Oh, really? What is a technicality? Ideological differences? Anti-Semitism? I am sure Hitler, if asked at the time, would also have said sending the Jews to the gas chambers was a technical matter. Fortunately, however, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu “corrected” his own ministry when he talked about “our sensitivity on Gaza, East Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa mosque.” Erdoğan said as much himself when he said the Israeli Defense Forces had their invitation withdrawn “because my people wanted it so.”

Erdoğan may ask his people and decide next to give orders for joint exercises with Iran, especially in launching missiles at “those who know how to kill well.” But at least his behavior has an explanation. With or without elections in sight, politicians tend to play for domestic consumption. And there is probably nothing better than Israel bashing in Turkey. When would a politician not resort to that? When the cost of Israel bashing is perceived to be greater than the benefits of it. Right? Right.

Has Erdoğan had to endure any political cost since his Davos tirade? No. Any cost when he made his country’s Syria’s best friend, in the words of the Guardian? No. Can it be a coincidence that all this fresh rounds of Israel bashing come at a time when his advisors tell him Israel is no longer the old Israel and that the Jews have minimal leverage on the U.S. administration? What better set-up could Erdoğan imagine, when he realizes that in a rare moment he has the luxury of following “his heart?” It is a genuinely rare moment in which he really could follow his political genes and not have to listen to his pragmatic mind.

Millions of secular Turks did not needlessly fear that Erdoğan and his men would “go east” when they claimed to do the opposite. They did not needlessly fear that Erdoğan’s Islamism would emerge at some unknown future and begin to hurt his Western friends, including Israel. Today it’s Israel. Tomorrow, it will be Europe and America.

And the Israelis… When they finish celebrating themselves, they should cheer up once again and just tell each other, “What’s wrong with all that? After all, the AKP is not a terrorist organization. Let’s keep up the support!”