Two days with Iraqi Kurds…

As the New York Times reporter asked northern Iraq’s interior minister Karim Sinjari about ever deepening Turkish-Iraqi ties, Sinjari looked at the deep-blue waters of the Bosporus and said, “A year ago, we couldn’t have imagined being here today.”

Sponsored by the Atlantic Council, Columbia University, the American University and the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, a two-day panel on relations between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Administration was recently held at the Swiss Hotel in Istanbul. The Iraqi Kurdish attendance was quite impressive.

Among the attendees were Sinjari, Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami and three other ministers of the new regional administration formed by Barham Salih a week ago. Also present were Fuad Hussein, president of the regional administration and Massoud Barzani’s right-hand man, key oil authorities such as Halit Salih and Kamran Karadaghi, three chairmen of chambers of commerce, along with the university presidents from Sulaimaniyah, Dohuk and Arbil.

Such strong attendance by Iraqi Kurds was not balanced out by the Turkish side though: There was not a single Turkish official at the meeting. For various reasons only our group attended it.

The “official” Turkey dislikes David Philips who organized the first meeting in Washington in April. Another critical reason for the lack of official Turkish attendance is the current internal tension within the country. As the “Kurdish initiative” was beginning, Republican People’s Party, or CHP, leader Deniz Baykal, the CHP’s Onur Öymen and Nationalist Action Party, or MHP, leader Devlet Bahçeli kicked up a row for the first panel in Washington, even going so far as to suggest the initiative was a U.S. plot.

Apparently, government circles that were negatively affected by the opposition’s fierce criticism have decided not to attend the second meeting so as not to cause more trouble.

Besides, they were clearly preoccupied by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Minister of State Zafer Çağlayan’s visit to the city of Arbil just two days ahead of the meeting. “Since we already visited Arbil, why do we need a meeting in Istanbul?” they must have thought.

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Interestingly though, the Iraqi Kurdish officials rushing to Istanbul after hosting Davutoğlu and Çağlayan in Arbil were extremely happy to be present both at the Arbil visit and the occasion in Istanbul.

Every single Iraqi Kurdish attendee at the meeting said last week’s Arbil visit was historic. They are looking to the future of Turkey-northern Iraq relations through a rosy frame.

The two-day panel, which was held behind closed doors, prompted much curiosity among reporters waiting outside or in the hallways as to what was going on inside.

Actually there was nothing odd going on inside. In fact, we discussed many different things, including:

- Agreements signed/positive trends

- The latest developments in Turkey

- Developments in the energy industry in northern Iraq

- Trade and investment

- Education and culture

- Lessons to be learned from Turkey-Greece rapprochement including civil society’s role

İlter Türkmen, the eldest speaker and a doyen of Turkish foreign policy, made a confession at the end of the second day. He roughly said that he had never thought Iraqi Kurdish officials could be this qualified. Northern Iraq or “Iraqi Kurdistan” is not that well-known in Turkey. The perception is that there is a man there named Massoud Barzani who rules the region as he pleases. Such perceptions in Turkey should change. Türkmen said that quite experienced officials are in charge there.

Perceptions… That’s our problem not only about Iraqi Kurds but also about relations between our own Turkish and Kurdish citizens…

Strangely enough, the Investment Minister of the Regional Kurdish Administration Herish Moharrem said to me during the meeting that there are 800 registered Turkish firms in the region, 500 of which are permanent. Annual trade volume between Turkey and the regional administration is $6 billion, twice as much of what we have with Greece. Our annual trade volume to all of Iraq stands at $7 billion – that is, almost all of which is with northern Iraq.

Moreover, there are enormously rich crude oil and natural gas resources waiting to be explored in the region. Hawrami jotted down a note regarding a few geologic estimations on oil and natural gas reserves in northern Iraq and passed it on to me:

He said they produce 45 billion barrels a day in crude oil and 6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas a year. Oil export from the region accounted for 100,000 barrels a day in 2009. That figure is expected to increase to 300,000 by 2010, 500,000 by 2011 and a million barrels by 2012.

Turkey consumes 500,000 barrels of oil a day and 36 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year. Northern Iraq lacks natural gas infrastructure today, but they will eventually reach annual output levels of 60-70 billion cubic meters.

Let’s think about the dynamics of the initiative in light of these figures…

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What is the main problem with the Regional Kurdish Administration nowadays?

According to Salih, there is no big issue to be discussed other than misperceptions. And Turkish perceptions are changing. Even as the new federal Iraqi Constitution was being prepared, Turkey was denying the status of the Iraqi Kurds. In the period 2006-2008, Turkey went through a state of confusion, but we are now in a “strategic partnership” period, especially since Davutoğlu’s Arbil visit.

The regional administration’s Foreign Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir said their perception on Turkey has not changed at all. “We have always preferred Turkey over other neighbors and have openly told this to our other neighbors, such as Iran and Syria.”

According to Hawrami: “The reason behind Turkish concerns regarding ‘Iraqi Kurdistan’ was an independent ‘Kurdistan Regional Administration.’ But even if Kurdistan becomes an independent state, it will have to depend on the periphery because it has no access to the sea.”

Let’s go back to the beginning: Sinjari, who is responsible for “security” in the regional administration, feels confident that the stagnation period in the Kurdish, or democratic, initiative in Turkey is temporary and that Turkey will soon find a way ahead.

There must have been something that he is sure of…