Swine flu over, but may return in winter, say experts

The pandemic H1N1 virus, better known as swine flu, no longer poses a risk in Turkey, but may return next winter, physicians from the Turkish Medical Association, or TTB, said Tuesday at an Istanbul press conference.

No patients with swine flu have turned up at hospitals in Turkey since January, according to Haluk Eraksoy, a member of the TTB’s Pandemic Scientific Consultation and Inspection Board.

“That means the pandemic has ceased its influence in Turkey, but it also does not mean [the disease] will not be seen in the country again,” he said.

Another member of the board, Dr. Çağrı Kalaça, said in a press statement that swine flu is likely to appear in the southern hemisphere, where it will be winter in the coming months. “The pandemic has the possibility to move around the world depending on the seasons, and it may come back [to Turkey] in winter 2010,” he said.

Health Minister Recep Akdağ has also said the swine-flu threat has ceased to exist in Turkey, the Anatolia news agency reported.

“We do not know whether there is going to be a second wave in the fall, but we do not expect a strong wave,” Akdağ said at a press conference in Ankara on Tuesday. The health minister added that the number of people vaccinated against swine flu was low in Turkey compared to the rest of the world.

“We did not buy 43 million vaccines, we bought 17 million vaccines and still continue talks with the companies to give some of these back,” Akdağ said.

Doctors from the TTB agreed with Akdağ, saying the pandemic was not exaggerated and the vaccination was a necessity.

Unlike a seasonal flu, swine flu affected many young people, as well as children and pregnant woman, Kalaça said. The rate of pregnant women who died of pneumonia increased more than 10 times during the pandemic.

“The number of pregnant women who died of pneumonia increased from 2 to 38 between 2008 and 2009,” Akdağ said, adding that that 36 of those who died in 2009 had the H1N1 virus. No pregnant women who were vaccinated died from swine flu, the health minister added.

Many people avoided getting the vaccination due to controversial statements made last year about whether the vaccines were healthy or unhealthy. The TTB doctors said the swine-flu vaccines are no different than those for the seasonal flu.

Selim Batur, another doctor from the TTB, said the vaccines for the H1N1 virus will be combined with the regular seasonal vaccines for 2010.

Kalaça also said there have been misrepresentations about the swine-flu vaccines in the press and the Health Ministry was not completely able to handle the false information spreading in Turkish society.

“First, the ministry gave only information about the death tolls and then stopped delivering data about them,” said Kalaça.

According to Feride Aksu Tanık, the head of the Pandemic Board for the TTB, said the swine-flu vaccines are healthy and members of risk groups should especially get vaccinated. She also complained, however, about the lack of research and development policy in Turkey about the vaccines.

Vaccines were not produced in the domestic market due to the shortage of political policy and power supporting this kind of work, Tanık said.