Turkey, Armenia to ink historic accords to normalize ties

The historic accords to be inked between neighboring Turkey and Armenia on Saturday will open a brand-new chapter in the two countries’ relations, which have been troubled by genocide allegations and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, yet a more difficult process awaits the two nations in the aftermath of the signing.

“The signing of the protocols will mark an end to informal or behind-the-scenes talks and the beginning of transparent and formal relations between the two countries,” Kaan Soyak, the co-chairman of the Brussels-based Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review in an interview.

The signing ceremony was expected to take place at the University of Zurich on Saturday. The signing of the protocols was delayed at the last minute and it remains unclear at this point when it will take place.

“There has been a lack of confidence between the two countries and nations. The protocols will draw the two peoples closer to each other. The region does not have the luxury of waiting another 15 or 16 years for the normalization of the ties [since this] is crucial for stability in the Caucasus,” said Soyak.

The first protocol, which will establish diplomatic ties, and the second, on the further development of relations, are accompanied by an appendix that sets a clear timetable for the implementation of both. The agreements envision the opening of the border within two months after the second protocol goes into force, although this step requires approval from the parliaments of both countries and their presidents.

Ratification of the protocols

The attention will shift to the two countries’ parliaments following the signing ceremony.

“The signing of the protocols is an indicator of political intention but their implementation depends on the parliaments’ ratification,” the parliamentary group leader of the opposition Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, Mehmet Şandır, told the Daily News.

The MHP will never allow a normalization process to occur unless Armenia ends its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, recognizes the 1921 Kars Agreement that sets the country’s eastern borders and withdraws its genocide claims, he said.

“Our position is clear. The Turkish Republic cannot make concessions on its past commitments. If the ruling Justice and Development Party [or AKP] violates red-lines, we will take the fight to the nation,” Şandır said.

In Istanbul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan assured compatriots that Turkey would never take a step that would leave Azerbaijan in difficulty.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan and said ties with Armenia cannot be normalized until progress is made on the dispute. The Minsk Group, co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France, is leading negotiations on the long-running conflict.

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met Thursday in Moldova, while the Minsk Group earlier worked on the Lachin corridor, a short strip of land that connects Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish diplomats say progress has been made in talks sponsored by the Minsk Group, emphasizing that the only outstanding question was the status of the disputed territory.

“If the Minsk Group takes a clear stance, this conflict will be resolved,” said Erdoğan.

Difficult process ahead

The Armenian diaspora has taken a harder line on the protocols than the Armenian government. Soyak said the diaspora could be divided into two, with 20 percent of them adopting a hard-line nationalist stance and the remaining, silent majority standing cautiously behind the Armenian government for the time being. 

“A more difficult process will begin after the protocols are concluded. We expect reactions from the Armenian diaspora but it will not be easy for Turkey either,” he stated, adding that deputies on both sides would feel pressure from their respective constituencies, something that would prevent them from voting independently on the ballot. 

Murat Mercan, the chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Commission, said it was difficult to predict the aftermath. “From Turkey’s perspective, the normalization of ties is linked to progress in talks on Nagorno-Karabakh. Progress on that front will accelerate and facilitate the ratification process in the Turkish Parliament,” he said.