Turkey, Armenia face tough problems in normalization process

Although the protocols were signed late Saturday to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia, the completion of the process still requires a lot of concentration and caution.

Here are some major challenges ahead on Turkey and Armenia’s path to reconciliation:

Growing reaction from the Armenian diaspora: Despite Armenian President Serge Sarkisian’s efforts to alleviate the concerns of the diaspora, it seems the head of state is far from satisfying his kinsmen abroad. The growing reaction from the diaspora could make life very difficult for the Armenian government in the ratification process. Additionally, the diaspora could also heat up the opposition in Armenia. Despite a parliamentary majority, the government would face difficulty in the ratification of the protocols.

Azerbaijan’s reaction: Azerbaijan and Turkey describe themselves as “one nation-two states.” Thus, signing the protocols with Armenia has sparked harsh reactions from Baku, whose relations with Turkey are not limited to culture and history. The two countries are in deep cooperation in the field of energy, which includes the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Despite assurances from Turkey that no further step will be taken if Armenia does not withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani lands, Baku could still use its “energy card” to secure Turkey’s position. It should also be noted that there is an important Azerbaijani lobby group in this country that could put pressure on the government.

Opposition in Turkey: The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has a clear majority in Parliament. Furthermore, the Democratic Society Party, or DTP, with its 20 members could also back the protocols. Finding 276 deputies would not be big problem for the AKP. But a Turkish official said: “This advantage could easily turn into a disadvantage. Believing that the vote is secured already could result in ignoring some nationalist dissidents in the ruling party. Different from Armenia’s parliament, votes from our deputies will not be instructed.”

Sarkisian’s absence at the match: Turkish officials say the process will not be affected if the Armenian president does not travel to Turkey to watch the match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams, but his refusal to come to Turkey would mean the first crack in the reconciliation process. That could also raise questions about Armenia’s will to complete the process.

If he comes: President Gül met with officials from Bursa to prevent reactions against Armenian football players and, if he comes, against Sarkisian. But following the signing of the protocols, some nationalist groups have already started a campaign to show a concerted reaction to a visiting Armenian delegation.

Another Annan Plan: This picture shows that the protocols could be annulled if one of the parties fails to endorse them in their parliament. This party seems to be Armenia. If the Turkish Parliament says “yes” and Armenia “no,” it would be similar to 2004 when Turkish Cypriots accepted the Annan Plan, a blueprint to reunify the island, while Greek Cypriots said “no.” The affects of the Turkish part’s endorsement to reconcile with their southern neighbor were limited because neither Turkey nor Turkish Cypriots could capitalize on it. In contrast with the idea that this situation will benefit Turkey, many say it will be seen as another victory for the diaspora, which could then increase its efforts for worldwide recognition of the 1915 events as genocide.